Brief
According to the press service of the National Bank of Ukraine, the country's international reserves decreased by 5% in February. As of 1 March their volume stood at $54.75 billion compared with a record $57.66 billion as of 1 February — the first decline since July 2025.
What happened
Main factors explaining the decline in reserves in February:
- The NBU sold almost $3 billion on the foreign exchange market; however, net currency sales fell by 19.8% compared with January — a sign of reduced pressure on the exchange rate.
- $1 billion arrived on the government's foreign currency accounts, including $690.8 million through World Bank accounts under the G7 initiative (ERA) and $309.6 million from the placement of domestic government bonds (OVDP).
- $804.1 million was paid for servicing and repaying public debt, while revaluation of financial instruments added another $152.5 million to the value of reserves.
"Despite the reduction, the volume of international reserves is sufficient to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market. The current volume provides financing for 5.7 months of future imports," the statement says.
— Press service of the National Bank of Ukraine
Why it matters
Reserves are not a vanity balance-sheet number but a real buffer for imports, debt servicing and exchange-rate support. Coverage of 5.7 months of imports means near-term needs can be met without emergency measures, but the decline is a reminder: reserves respond to flows — both defense and debt-service expenditures and inflows from partners.
On the other hand, the reduction in the NBU's net currency sales alongside inflows from the G7 ERA and OVDP placements points to a combination of external support and market stabilization. This is an important signal for investors and creditors: support mechanisms are working, but they need to be maintained and scaled up.
Outlook and risks
The NBU has improved its forecast and expects reserves to grow to $65 billion in 2026 and to $72.9 billion in 2027. This indicates confidence from partners and the market, but it is also a projection that requires confirmation by real flows — aid, investment and sustained fiscal discipline.
Conclusion
The February decline in reserves is a worrying signal, but not a crisis: the balance shows both pressure factors (debt payments) and support factors (G7 ERA payments, OVDP). The coming months will show whether partners' promises translate into steady inflows. For every citizen this is a matter of currency security, price stability and the state's ability to fund defense and basic needs.
Economists and markets are watching two things closely: first — the pace of inflows from international partners; second — the pace of debt repayments. If these flows balance out, the NBU's forecast has a chance of becoming reality. If not — additional sources of support will need to be found.
