What happened
The National Bank published the results of its assessment of banks' resilience — AQR and stress tests broken down by institution. The testing covered 21 financial institutions, which account for over 90% of the banking system's assets. The data were posted on the "Banking supervision. Assessment of banks' resilience" page, the regulator's press service said.
"The assessment of resilience by bank involves a review of asset quality (AQR) and the application of two macroeconomic scenarios — a baseline and an adverse one."
— National Bank of Ukraine, press service
Key figures
In 2025 the NBU returned to the pre‑war stress‑testing methodology with two scenarios. According to the results:
- 12 banks passed the testing without imposition of increased capital adequacy requirements. Among them: PrivatBank, Oschadbank, Ukrgasbank, Raiffeisen Bank, Ukrsibbank, Credit Agricole, OTP Bank, ProCredit Bank, Kredobank, PUMB, Universal Bank and Pivdennyi.
- Under the baseline scenario increased capital requirements were set for six financial institutions (together — 5% of assets): Credit Dnipro, Tascombank, VST Bank, A‑Bank, Bank Lviv and Pravex Bank.
- Under the adverse scenario there are nine such banks (together — 18% of assets): the same six plus Ukreximbank, Sense Bank and MTB Bank.
What this means for the market and depositors
Compared with the 2021 assessment the situation has changed: now the overall capital of banks is increasing under both scenarios (in 2021 the system's capital fell under the adverse scenario). This is a signal of increased resilience of the system after the shocks of the full‑scale invasion.
At the same time, the share of assets that fell under increased requirements under the negative scenario (18%) indicates existing vulnerabilities that require attention. For a depositor this means: systemic risks are decreasing, but some institutions need time and plans to strengthen their capital.
"All banks for which a capital need has been identified are already implementing restructuring programs agreed with the National Bank."
— National Bank of Ukraine, press service
What steps are planned
The restructuring programs agreed with the NBU mainly envisage measures to reduce vulnerability and build up capital through profits, rather than immediate recapitalization by owners. These financial institutions must achieve the required capital adequacy levels under the baseline scenario by the end of this year, and under the adverse scenario by October 2026.
Also, in June 2025 the regulator set a minimum leverage ratio (LR) of 3% — mandatory from 1 September 2025 for banks and from 1 April 2026 for banking groups. This is an additional tool to limit excessive credit risk.
Conclusion
The stress‑test results show: the banking system is becoming more resilient, but this does not apply equally to all players. The NBU has set clear frameworks and deadlines; now it is up to the banks to implement the restructuring programs, and up to the owners to assess capital needs. Effective implementation of the plans will determine whether the sector can withstand new macro shocks without systemic turmoil.
Whether this will be enough to protect Ukrainians' savings and preserve the flow of credit into the economy is a question whose answer depends on the discipline of the banks and the transparency of program implementation.
