What the National Bank Said
The NBU's inflation report states: the direct impact of a possible crash of the "AI bubble" on the foreign exchange market, the banking system and Ukraine's economy will be relatively small, but the secondary effects could become significant. This is a key distinction: the initial lines of attack will pass by our banks, while our external links and people's incomes may be hit.
"A possible crash of the artificial intelligence 'bubble' will have a relatively small direct impact on the foreign exchange market, the financial system and Ukraine's economy, but the secondary effects will be more noticeable."
— National Bank of Ukraine, inflation report
Three Main Channels of Risk
1. Reduction in exports of IT services. The Ukrainian IT sector depends on demand from global companies and startups. A sharp reduction in investment or orders for AI projects will reduce orders, put pressure on the hryvnia and decrease employment in technical professions.
2. Decline in remittances. Some Ukrainian migrants work in sectors related to technology and finance. A drop in demand in these industries would mean smaller remittances — and direct harm to domestic consumption and the exchange rate.
3. Complications for international financial assistance. In the event of a market shock, donors and investors may reallocate capital toward safer assets. That would complicate mobilizing resources for the budget and reconstruction.
Market Concentration and the International Background
The NBU points out that the share prices of the seven largest U.S. tech companies rose by 330% in 2023–2025, while the rest of the S&P 500 index rose by only 50%. Such concentration increases the risk of a correction. International organizations — the IMF, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England — currently assess these risks as moderate, but analysts warn of possible consequences for employment and financial sectors.
Morgan Stanley forecast that by 2030 European banks could cut about 10% of staff (~212,000 people) due to automation and AI — an example of structural reorganization that amplifies channels of impact on cross-border incomes and jobs.
Pros and Cons for Ukraine
There is also a positive effect: a reduction in investment in AI infrastructure could lower global energy prices. That would reduce Russia's export revenues and potentially improve Ukraine's trade balance, since Ukraine largely imports energy supplies. In other words, part of the global market risks could coincide with our geopolitical interests.
What's Next — A Short Forecast
The risk of an "AI bubble" for Ukraine is not a direct catastrophe, but it is a test of the economy's resilience. It is important to monitor IT sector revenues, remittances and aid flows. State policy and decisive business action — market diversification, support for worker retraining and strengthening financial monitoring — can mitigate the secondary effects.
Question for partners and society: will we turn this risk into a push for diversifying export services and strengthening social protection for workers, or will we wait for the consequences? The answer is shaped not only by you — but also by our economic policy.
