A week ago, Donald Trump said he was ready to allow Ukraine to produce its own interceptor missiles for Patriot systems. A few days later — he said he hadn't decided anything yet. For Valery Chaly, Ukraine's former ambassador to Washington, this inconsistency is not confusion on the part of the U.S. president. In his view, it is an element of a game calculated not for Kyiv at all.
"He [Trump] talked about all these possibilities of Patriot licenses. He said all that, and then he took back his words to bargain with Putin," the diplomat said in an interview with LIGA.net.
Who the statement is really addressed to
According to Chaly's version, the statements about licenses concerned not Ukrainian defense needs, but were meant to reach the Kremlin. The formula is simple: a promise to Kyiv of technological independence from American supplies is an argument in negotiations with Moscow, not a step in Washington-Kyiv bilateral relations.
"He told Putin this: 'Stop, or I'll grant licenses.' That is, it was a bargain, in my view. At least that's how I read his actions and statements," Chaly added.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, insists that the licenses will indeed be granted — regardless of how Trump formulates his position publicly.
Why now
The question of licenses arose not by chance: on the agenda is the possibility that Ukraine would independently manufacture critically important ammunition for Patriot systems, instead of depending on the pace of partner deliveries and ensuring a stable replenishment of missile stocks for defense against Russian air attacks. This is precisely the resource that Ukraine feels the shortage of most acutely during massive strikes on energy infrastructure and cities.
- At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump said the United States would allow Ukraine to launch production of interceptor missiles for Patriot.
- The transfer of corresponding licenses was also discussed during Trump's meeting with Zelensky on July 28.
- But on July 31, Trump said he had not yet decided whether to allow Ukraine to produce interceptor missiles.
This very sequence — a public promise, a meeting with Zelensky, and then a reversal — prompted Chaly to think it was a bargain, not a change in policy.
Playing ahead or manipulating expectations
Chaly acknowledges: Trump regularly uses a similar technique — makes a loud statement, creates an information wave around it, and then uses that wave as a bargaining chip in negotiations.
"And this was such an attempt. Everything else is our expectations, our fears. Manipulators use these," the former ambassador continued.
This is where the risk for Kyiv lies: if the statement about licenses was calculated primarily for Putin, then Ukrainian expectations about quickly launching domestic production may turn out to be inflated — regardless of how critical this technology is for the country's long-term defense capability.
What this means for negotiations
If Chaly's assumption is correct, the next move should be sought not in Washington or Kyiv, but in Moscow's reaction: will the Kremlin perceive Trump's public inconsistency as a bluff, or as a real threat of losing Russia's monopoly on depleting Ukrainian air defenses. The answer to this will become clear when Trump either actually signs the license permission or quietly drops the subject — depending on whether negotiations with Putin move forward at all.
