What's happening
According to LIGA.net and a comment to the outlet from Defense Express expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi, the Russians are gradually shifting the emphasis to jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicles of the "Geran" family. Ukrainian units currently employ FPV interceptors as a mass, cheap, and flexible means against Shahed drones. But the emergence of faster jet-powered variants changes the math of interception.
Why this matters
Speed and flight profile determine the time available for detection, transition into the engagement zone, and the interceptor itself. If a "Geran-3" can be caught by a conventional FPV drone, the "Geran-4" and "Geran-5" already travel at speeds close to those of cruise missiles — and traditional cheap-mass solutions lose effectiveness. This forces changes not only in tactics but also in the technological tasks assigned to industry.
"It turned out that the jet-powered 'Geran-3' is so slow that it can be caught and shot down by a regular FPV drone. But jet-powered 'Geran-4' and 'Geran-5' are also coming into play. Their flight speed is higher — literally like that of a cruise missile."
— Ivan Kyrychevskyi, serviceman of the 413th Regiment of the Unmanned Systems Forces “Reid”, weapons expert (Defense Express)
Examples and possible responses
The world already has examples of jet anti-air drones and single-use/recoverable missile-drones: the American Coyote Block 2 and Coyote Block 3 with ranges up to ~15 km, and the Iranian "358"/"359". This proves the task is technologically solvable, but it requires time, resources, and coordination.
"Perhaps, over time our designers will have to, in a short timeframe, develop a jet anti-air drone so that it can operate en masse against Russian jet 'Gerans.'"
— Ivan Kyrychevskyi, Defense Express (comment for LIGA.net)
What the command is already doing
Personnel and structural steps within the Air Force indicate a reorientation: under Deputy Commander Pavlo Yelizarov they are forming a "small" air defense, and the new command is to coordinate counter-UAV efforts. The President and military leadership have approved a structure intended to speed up decision-making and the introduction of new air defense means.
Consequences and a brief forecast
If Russia does move jet UAVs into mass production, Ukraine will need to do three things simultaneously: accelerate research and development, ramp up serial production of the appropriate interceptors, and seek technological assistance from partners. This is a resource and organizational challenge, but not a technical fatality. The effectiveness of the future response will depend on how quickly the state and industry can transform existing FPV-interceptor experience into a jet-powered product line.
In short: today FPV interceptors work — tomorrow a jet-powered counterpart may be needed. Time and cooperation with partners will be decisive.
Sources: LIGA.net (comment by Ivan Kyrychevskyi), Defense Express, open data on Coyote Block 2/3, and information on the Iranian models "358/359".
