The Trump administration informed the Belarusian opposition in exile about halting further efforts to free political prisoners. Leader of Belarus's democratic forces Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya confirmed this to Reuters on June 9 — becoming the first to publicly acknowledge the slowdown in negotiations.
US presidential special envoy John Cole, a 79-year-old diplomat appointed by Trump to work with Minsk, publicly stated on April 28 that he expected another prisoner release in May. According to him, this was supposed to pave the way for further sanctions relief. May passed without results.
"The next releases have been postponed for some time. Knowing the reason, I am not concerned. But any delay destroys the health of many of them — and this is not the end of the process."
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Reuters
What has already happened and what remains
Since the start of negotiations, Lukashenko has released over 400 people. The most prominent episode — December 2025, when after the US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash, 123 people were released, including Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski, opposition figures Maria Kolesnikova and Viktor Babariko. Most of them were transferred to Ukraine.
According to human rights center Vyasna, approximately 870 political prisoners remain in Belarusian prisons, with at least 170 recognized as "particularly vulnerable" due to age, illness, or harsh detention conditions. At the same time, since December, Vyasna has documented at least 50 new politically motivated convictions — May alone added 32 new names to the list.
"Revolving door" as a negotiating tactic
Tsikhanouskaya directly speaks of a systemic problem: Lukashenko releases old prisoners while simultaneously imprisoning new ones — to maintain his negotiating leverage. According to her, this resembles an attempt to "get a Lamborghini for the price of a bicycle — take much while giving little."
Analyst and former Belarusian diplomat Pavel Slunkin (Warsaw) believes the stalling of negotiations could be due to Lukashenko's dissatisfaction with the US inability to involve Europeans in the dialogue. Reuters separately notes: arrests of regime critics continue despite Cole publicly demanding they stop.
The situation is complicated by regional context: Belarus conducted joint nuclear exercises with Russia, and Zelensky stated that Moscow is trying to draw Minsk deeper into the war against Ukraine.
Mechanism without oversight
Throughout the negotiations, no public document outlining the parties' commitments has been produced. The agreement is built on Cole's personal contact with Lukashenko — and on an exchange: sanctions relief in return for specific batches of released prisoners. There is no verification of arrests stopping. Cole wrote on X on June 3 only: "We are not finished. Do not lose hope" — without explaining why the May deadline failed.
If the US indeed promised Lukashenko something they cannot deliver — as Slunkin suggests — the pause may prove to be not technical but substantive: negotiations may have reached an impasse precisely when hundreds of people with damaged health remain in prison.
