After 72 matches of the 2026 World Cup group stage, the Opta supercomputer revised its predictions: the model simulated the remainder of the tournament 25,000 times and produced an updated odds rating for each of the 32 teams that advanced to the knockout rounds.
What changed and why it's no accident
Before the tournament started, Opta favored Spain — 16.1% chance of winning the trophy. France was second with 13%. But after the group stage, the situation shifted: France rose to 18.7%, Argentina — 16.3%, Spain — 13.5%. England (9.7%) and Brazil (6.5%) also entered the top five.
The reason for the shift is concrete. As Opta Analyst notes, the French won all three group stage matches — for the first time since 1998, when they became world champions on home soil. Only Argentina and Mexico also had a perfect group stage alongside them.
«France started the tournament as the second favorite with 13% chances. After an outstanding group stage, it moved to first place with 18.7%».
Opta Analyst
What the model doesn't account for — and this matters
The Opta algorithm is built on real metrics: expected goals, quality of chances, bracket structure. But there's a caveat: the model simulates probable scenarios rather than predicts specific matches. Out of 25,000 simulations, even Haiti won the 2026 World Cup once — and this is embedded in the methodology.
Additionally, the three host countries — the United States, Mexico, Canada — have minimal trophy chances despite home support. The US is the most optimistic of the three, but by Opta's calculations, it's less than 1.2% chance of championship.
Knockout bracket: where the real risks lie
A telling moment — Argentina with Messi will face Jordan in the Round of 32, which is a comfortable draw. France, meanwhile, drew Sweden. Direct clashes between favorites in early rounds can sharply diminish anyone's chances — and this is something 25,000 simulations account for, but which always leaves room for surprises.
- France — 18.7% (up from 13% before the start)
- Argentina — 16.3% (defending champions, three group wins)
- Spain — 13.5% (down from first place)
- England — 9.7%
- Brazil — 6.5%
The model also notes: in only 35.9% of simulations is the 2026 World Cup winner a new team that has never won before. In other words, in two out of three scenarios, the trophy returns to familiar names.
The critical question
If France faces Spain or Argentina in the Round of 16 — and the bracket doesn't rule this out — the algorithm will be forced to drastically rewrite the probabilities. Will the French team confirm its favorite status precisely when simulations end and real football begins?
