Democrats seeking to reclaim Nevada's gubernatorial residence want to tie incumbent Republican Governor Joe Lombardo to Donald Trump's agenda – but the first-term governor is not making that task easy for them.
Despite Trump's endorsement, Lombardo, a former sheriff, has at times broken with the White House and the Republican-controlled Congress. He criticized cuts to Medicaid, publicly complained in a letter to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum about rollbacks of wind and solar projects in Nevada and asked the administration to lift tariffs on lithium.
Democrats, meanwhile, have attacked the governor for not standing up to Trump, saying in a press release last month that Lombardo "refuses to defend" Nevada after the Trump administration canceled a major solar project.
Democrats' plans
National Democrats, buoyed by off-cycle electoral victories earlier this month, view Lombardo as the top governor to remove in the midterms. He will face Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford or progressive Washoe County commission chair Alexis Hill. The race is unfolding amid economic instability in one of America's most working-class states, even as working-class voters have been drifting away from the Democratic Party over several cycles.
"Our intention, when we run, – unfinished business."
– said Joe Viver, Lombardo's campaign manager, in a mid-November interview.
Viver noted that the governor is still trying to complete certain items of his agenda amid resistance from the Democrat-controlled state legislature, including a crime bill that increases penalties for many offenses. The bill was finally passed earlier this month.
At the same time, Lombardo has vetoed more than 160 proposals sent to him by the state assembly, and at the start of his campaign called himself "the last line of defense" between Nevada's people and "irresponsible politicians".
Challenges for Democrats
Democrats seeking to remove Lombardo will have to work. Nevada has shifted right in recent cycles, including 2024, when Trump became the first Republican to win the state in two decades. Republicans have also registered more members than Democrats in the state, which is a worrying signal for Democrats who see a decline in tourism – nearly 8 percent compared with 2024, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority – and economic troubles as an opportunity to reclaim the governor's residence.
"'The Trump decline' is real, and Nevada is a canary in the coal mine."
– said Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen, who was re-elected in Nevada last year by almost 2 percentage points – while Trump won by 3 points.
She, like most of Nevada's political establishment, has already endorsed Ford.
"Health care and affordability – those are the main things people worry about... that's what Attorney General Ford should focus on – what worries people at the kitchen table."
– she added.
Economic factors
But people don't necessarily blame Trump for the state's tourism downturn. An October survey of registered voters conducted by Noble Predictive Insights found that 46 percent believe the drop in tourism is related to rising costs of hotels, food and entertainment, and only 14 percent thought it was due to political rhetoric or federal policy.
Some Democrats see opportunities for victory. Independent or unaffiliated voters remain the largest bloc in the state, leaving the door open for Democrats. Rosen and Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto regularly outperform national Democrats in popularity, and the legislature is Democratic. The state is one of only five with a divided triplex: Nevada's governor is Republican, while the attorney general and secretary of state are Democrats.
"In Nevada I wouldn't say the Republican Party itself has been very successful at electing candidates. I would say Trump was successful – in his personality and his message – in connecting with disgruntled voters and workers."
– said Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
Lombardo's position
Lombardo shocked Democrats when he unseated Governor Steve Sisolak in 2022, and Trump credited the governor in part for his 2024 presidential victory.
But, like other statewide elected officials such as Rosen and Cortez Masto, who have broken with their party (as they did over ending the recent shutdown and blocking certain arms sales to Israel in August), Lombardo represents a state where voters reward independence and prioritize economic issues. Despite Trump's praise, it was Lombardo who refused to call Trump "a great president" in 2022, instead calling him "smart" – a description his office later sought to walk back.
And there are issues on which Lombardo parted ways with Trump after the president took office. Lombardo said in January that he considered Trump's plan for mass deportation "not something I consider appropriate policy." When the White House designated Nevada a sanctuary state early this year, Lombardo prepared a 10-page memo to argue otherwise. In it he outlined how Nevada adjusted state policy to move closer to Trump's approach, including pressuring the Las Vegas police to better cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. And although he dodged in December when asked whether he would mobilize the National Guard to assist ICE operations, he later approved their activation in August.
Latino voters
One in five voters in the state is Latino, and in 2024 they swung toward Trump: 35 percent voted for the current president, while only 27 percent voted for him in 2020. Many Latinos in Nevada value the economy, jobs and education even more than immigration reform, said Nevada-based Republican strategist Jesus Marquez, and are increasingly frustrated with the Democrats' focus on culture wars.
"Democrats have for decades been pursuing the wrong things on behalf of Latinos."
– said Marquez.
However, they remain a swing vote: Latinos returned to Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this month, and a recent Emerson College poll of registered voters showed that Ford leads Lombardo among Latino voters in Nevada by 16 points.
Democrats' strategy
Democrats are counting on their ability to tie the governor to Trump policies that are unpopular with some voters. An Emerson College poll found that 34 percent of Nevadans approve of Lombardo's job, 30 percent are neutral, while 36 percent disapprove – a lower level of disapproval than Rosen, Cortez Masto and Trump received in the same poll. A July poll showed that voters most disapproved of Lombardo's support for Trump, and that's what Democrats are trying to hammer home: accusing Lombardo of failing to stand up to the administration.
"Over the months since [Trump] took office, we've simply become poorer and sicker, and Governor Lombardo certainly hasn't achieved any wins there. We just need to focus squarely on the president, his policies, his censorship, every single way he's moving toward authoritarianism and simply doesn't account for the real people and their struggles."
– said Rosen, accusing Lombardo of "enabling" Trump.
Ford, the attorney general running to unseat Lombardo, echoed Rosen, saying he has little faith in Lombardo to stand up to the White House.
"[Lombardo] stood aside and remained silent while Trump dismantled our economy [and] continued to negatively affect the livelihoods of so many Nevadans."
– said Ford.
The attorney general touted his own experience as a single father who received food stamps early in his life, and said he wants to work with the state legislature to counter some federal policies.
Republicans' response
A Lombardo representative, however, dismissed those accusations.
"Governor Lombardo has delivered real results for Nevada, critical affordable housing legislation, historic funding and accountability for schools and thousands of new jobs for Nevadans. He has no business lecturing anyone about putting Nevada families first."
– said the representative.
Republicans quickly argue that attacking Trump is not an economic plan that works in a purple state.
"Ford has always been a Democratic culture warrior. I find it hard to think he can pivot."
– said Jeremy Hughes, a Republican strategist who worked with Lombardo's campaign.
Hill, the other Democratic primary candidate, says that tying Lombardo to Trump must be paired with policy ideas. She is running on a platform to make housing more affordable and diversify Nevada's economy to make it less dependent on tourism.
"What we learned from the last elections is that Nevadans need something to vote for."
– said Hill in a recent interview.
