Kinburn Spit — 45 kilometers of sand and protected forest between the Black Sea and the Dnieper-Bug estuary. Since 2022, it has been the only occupied piece of Mykolaiv region. And, ironically, its very geography has become a trap for those who seized it.
One road — one vulnerability
Supply of the occupying group on the spit goes almost entirely through a single land-based logistics artery. This is no secret — and this is precisely what has made it an ideal target for Ukrainian drones. According to estimates by the ATESH intelligence network, logistics on this section have come to a complete halt: ammunition, fuel, and food deliveries have been stopped.
«This was not a frontal assault, but a comprehensive campaign of isolation, logistical strangulation, and precision strikes».
ATESH — on the strategy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South
Vladislav Voloshyn, spokesman for the Southern Defense Forces, confirmed to UNIAN: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are systematically striking the occupied part of this sector with drones. According to ATESH, units of Russia's 337th regiment are abandoning previously held positions in the north and west of the spit — and there has been no rotation conducted even once.
A parallel worth remembering
The analogy with the deoccupation of the right bank of Kherson region in 2022 is not coincidental. Then the Armed Forces of Ukraine also did not resort to frontal assault: they destroyed bridges, crossings, warehouses, and fuel convoys. Russia's group gradually exhausted its supplies and found itself cut off. Kinburn Spit reproduces the same model — with the difference that it is harder to retreat from here: water on three sides.
Why there is «no withdrawal» yet
Dmytro Pletnechuk, spokesman for Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, warns against hasty conclusions. There are no signs of a complete Russian military withdrawal — for now, a probable rotation is being recorded, rather than a retreat. The spit has not only tactical but also symbolic significance for Russia: it even appeared in Putin's negotiating «proposals» as a potential «gesture of good will».
In addition, the spokesman for the Regional Military Administration reminded about the cost of occupation for the territory itself: restoring the nature reserve after liberation will take decades — fires, fortifications, and mining have destroyed the unique ecosystem.
Deoccupying the spit will require a coordinated operation by sea, air, and land simultaneously — logistical pressure is a necessary but not sufficient condition.
If the model of «isolation instead of assault» works the same way as on the right bank of Kherson region, Mykolaiv region could become the first region to be completely liberated without a large-scale offensive. But this will only happen when the pressure on the single logistics artery becomes irreversible — not just painful.
