On April 17, the Strait of Hormuz reopened — and five tankers with Qatari LNG set sail eastward. For the markets, this looks like a return to normal. But the figures that QatarEnergy operates with in negotiations with buyers describe a completely different reality.
Recovery Schedule: Optimistic and Incomplete
According to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the negotiations, QatarEnergy informed buyers of the following: 50% capacity — within a month of the strait's opening, 80% — within two months. Recovery of the remainder — "will take years."
This last phrase is the crux of the matter. According to Wood Mackenzie's estimates, the March 2026 missile strike permanently disabled 17% of annual export capacity at Ras Laffan. The analytics company forecasts that the facility will not return even to partial normalcy before the end of August — and only if the ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds.
Two Weeks of Ceasefire and 14 Stranded Tankers
The ceasefire that opened the strait is not a peace agreement. Tehran announced "two weeks of safe passage" in coordination with its armed forces and within "technical limitations." Washington declared a "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE opening." These positions do not align.
"The ceasefire means that 14 loaded LNG tankers in the Gulf will be able to exit through Hormuz and will ease the global gas market somewhat. But for real structural changes in supply, Ras Laffan must restart its 12 operational trains — and it's unclear whether QatarEnergy will risk doing this during a ceasefire."
Tom Marzec-Menser, Head of Europe Gas & LNG, Wood Mackenzie
Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines has not yet changed its position: navigation will be resumed only after full confirmation of safety. Shipowners are not rushing to test the strait until they receive guarantees.
What Is Actually Damaged — and Why It Will Take Years
Ras Laffan is the world's largest LNG complex with a total capacity of 77 million tons per year. Over 19% of global LNG trade passes through it. Replacing gas turbines damaged during the strike requires two to four years — due to a global equipment shortage. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure for buyers from China, South Korea, Italy, and Belgium.
- Annual revenue losses are estimated at $20 billion
- The "North section" of Ras Laffan may resume operations within a month
- The "South section" — no earlier than summer 2026
- Damaged capacity (≈17%) — indefinitely off schedule for years
Europe versus Asia: Not Equal Risk
The closure of Hormuz struck asymmetrically. According to the EIA, Qatari LNG through the strait supplied 27% of LNG imports to Asia and only about 7% — to Europe. Asian buyers who spent years building contracts based on Qatari volumes with no alternative routes found themselves in the most vulnerable position. It is precisely there that the first five tankers from Ras Laffan are headed — to Pakistan and India.
Throughout the blockade, India received separate Qatari shipments through "corridors" agreed with Iran — that is, informal arrangements that existed parallel to the official closure. This explains in detail why the opening of the strait is not a switch but a process with countless conditions.
If the ceasefire between the United States and Iran does not develop into a sustainable agreement by the end of April, QatarEnergy is unlikely to risk starting all 12 operational trains — and then even "80% within two months" will remain only a promise in private negotiations, not a market figure.
