In brief — why this matters
The Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce on 16 December 2025 fully dismissed the claims of the Dutch company Green Genius International B.V. (formerly Modus Energy International) against Ukraine. The suit sought compensation of at least €22.7 million in connection with the reduction of the "green" tariff in 2020. For the state this is the first victory in international arbitrations related to the tariff restructuring — and potentially an important precedent for dozens of similar cases.
The tribunal’s decision
The tribunal found that during the tariff restructuring Ukraine acted within its regulatory powers and pursued a legitimate public purpose. The court also found no grounds to conclude that the investor had protected expectations regarding the immutability of the regulatory environment or a guaranteed level of profitability at the time of the investment. Separately, the arbitration noted that the claimed financial losses were based on assumptions about hypothetical future revenues and were not properly substantiated.
"This decision creates an important precedent for dozens of similar cases and confirms the lawfulness of Ukraine's public policy in the field of renewable energy."
— Ministry of Justice of Ukraine
What it means for the state and citizens
First, the decision reduces the risk of large payouts from the state budget in similar arbitrations — which in turn eases pressure on budgetary resources needed for defense and reconstruction. Second, it sends a legal signal to investors: state regulation aimed at the public interest can be deemed lawful, but investment expectations must be documented and justified.
Experts note that the decision will also affect Ukraine's negotiating position in disputes that are still pending, and could accelerate their resolution in the interests of taxpayers.
Context — the memorandum and the 2020 law
In June 2020 the Cabinet of Ministers signed a memorandum with investors in renewables, which formed the basis for law No. 810-IX (July 2020). The document envisaged a reduction of the "green" tariff for solar PV by 15% and for wind by 7.5%, while the government guaranteed 100% payment of the tariff and the repayment of debts by the end of 2021. Modus/Green Genius was the first investor to bring a claim to international arbitration in connection with these changes.
What’s next
Now the key point: this is not an automatic victory in all cases — but it is a strong argument for the state in other arbitrations. Partners and taxpayers should watch how this decision translates into practical steps — in particular, the speed of dispute resolution and the transparency of compensation mechanisms. The signal to investors is simple: the rules of the game can be changed, but you must invest understanding the risks and documenting expectations.
One final rhetorical question: can this decision become the start of a systemic resolution of disputes that divert resources from the country's recovery?
