Scott Bessent is citing figures that sound like relief: $40–50 per barrel instead of the current $91–95. The logic of the U.S. Treasury Secretary is straightforward — once the war with Iran ends, oil that is currently being held back by the conflict will flood the market, and prices will fall under the weight of supply.
We could see oil prices at $50, possibly $40, simply because so much of it is coming to market
The problem is that the statement was made without any timeline. And according to a Republican from the House Armed Services Committee, the situation is "stalled" — meaning the conversation about "the other side of the conflict" remains hypothetical for now.
Who will actually feel the difference at $50 per barrel
For an ordinary Ukrainian or American, this is not an abstract figure on a stock ticker. Oil prices directly drive the cost of gasoline, diesel, and through logistics, nearly all goods on store shelves.
- Diesel in the U.S. has already surged to a historic record — and it is precisely because of this that analysts are warning about rising food prices
- Oil falling to $40 would mean significant relief for transport companies and farmers who factor fuel into their production costs
- For oil-producing countries, including those financing wars, a price collapse would be a blow to their budgets
Why optimism may be premature
Bessent links falling oil prices to declining inflation and interest rates in the U.S. — and here the Treasury Secretary's interest is obvious: cheap oil gives the Federal Reserve room to ease policy. It is a convenient narrative for an administration that wants to see lower rates.
But the oil market rarely moves as linearly as politicians would like. Even after the end of hostilities, geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf region do not disappear instantly, and production capacity does not ramp up in a week.
The question remains open: will we see oil at $40 this year, or has the market simply received a verbal intervention meant to reassure investors before anything actually changes on the battlefield?
