In May 2026, consumer inflation in Ukraine slowed to 8.2% annually — after 8.6% in April. Monthly price growth amounted to 0.9% compared to 1.4% a month earlier. It would seem the trend is positive. But the NBU press service noted that actual inflation figures — both general and core inflation — exceeded the forecast trajectory outlined in the April 2026 Inflation Report.
Eggs fell, services — did not
Traditional seasonal price drops for eggs and apples softened the overall indicator. But this is not the type of prices that form a stable inflationary background. Meanwhile, buckwheat and oil became more expensive, and the most alarming signal comes from core inflation.
Service sector inflation in May reached 12.8%. Processed grain products — bread, flour, pasta — increased by 16.7% on an annual basis. It is these components that the NBU attributes to signs of fundamental price pressure — the kind that cannot be corrected by a single good harvest.
"The average monthly annualized price growth for processed food products and services accelerated to 8.2% and 19.2% respectively" — compared to 6.2% and 8.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
NBU Inflation Report, April 2026
Why service prices do not stop
The NBU identifies three structural reasons for price pressure:
- Wage inflation. Labor shortages due to mobilization force businesses to raise wages faster than expected — and pass these costs on to prices.
- Energy. Strikes on infrastructure and logistics costs of additional generation create a persistent operational burden for service sector enterprises.
- Currency depreciation effect. The import component in services and semi-finished products reflects previous exchange rate fluctuations with a lag of several months.
What comes next
The NBU forecasts a temporary acceleration of inflation to 9.4% by the end of 2026 — and only in 2027 does it expect a return to a downward trajectory toward 6.5%, and in 2028 — to the target 5%. This means that even under an optimistic scenario, Ukrainian consumers will live above the inflation target for at least another two years.
Core inflation — excluding fuel and raw food products — in May stood at 7.1%. It is this indicator that the NBU uses as a benchmark for decisions regarding the policy rate.
If wage pressure does not subside by autumn — and the labor market is unlikely to change without structural shifts in mobilization policy — the NBU will face a choice: raise rates in conditions of a war economy or accept inflation that consistently exceeds forecasts.
