On June 12, the IMF and Ukrainian authorities signed a staff-level agreement on the first review of a four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program worth $8.1 billion. After approval by the IMF Board of Directors, Kyiv will receive the next tranche — $690 million, bringing total disbursements under the program to $2.2 billion out of the planned $8.1 billion.
What Has Been Done and What Has Not
The IMF has documented a contradictory picture: all quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets as of end-March have been met. However, structural reforms are falling behind. According to the Fund's press release, two structural benchmarks for the first quarter were implemented with delays, and one was not completed at all. This concerns the law on taxation of international parcels valued up to 150 euros: on May 26, the Verkhovna Rada failed the corresponding vote.
The IMF nonetheless agreed to the tranche — but with conditions: Kyiv commits to catching up on overdue reforms and taking on additional obligations. According to Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, the agreement is expected to be approved by the IMF Board of Directors in the coming weeks.
What Kyiv Has Promised to Do
The package of commitments covers several areas. According to NV and RBC-Ukraine, key requirements include:
- Parcel taxes: elimination of customs VAT exemption for parcels valued up to 150 euros — the condition remains in the program, but the implementation deadline has been extended;
- Transfer pricing: measures against schemes by which companies avoid paying taxes in Ukraine through offshore arbitrage;
- Simplified tax system: restrictions on abuse — business splitting and "disguised employment";
- State enterprises and banks: acceleration of competitive recruitment for management positions, strengthening of supervisory boards, increased managerial accountability.
"Banks remain well-capitalized, liquid, and have adequate reserves, and since 2024 have expanded credit supply despite challenging conditions."
— IMF press release, June 12, 2025
Macroeconomic Forecast: Optimism Ends at the Numbers
The agreement is being concluded against a backdrop of deteriorating economic forecasts. As Economic Pravda notes, citing the IMF, Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be at the level of 1–1.6% — due to the prolonged war, strikes on energy and critical infrastructure, and general uncertainty. The Fund directly states: "The forecast remains highly uncertain."
Important context here regarding scale: a staff-level agreement is not yet a decision. Between it and the actual tranche stands a vote by the IMF Board of Directors. Formally it is a procedure, but precedents for delays exist — specifically due to structural delays.
If the Verkhovna Rada blocks the law on VAT for parcels again before the Board of Directors meeting — will the IMF consider obligations sufficiently fulfilled for the next tranche to be disbursed?
