National Bank of Ukraine Deputy Chairman Volodymyr Lepushynskyi said briefly in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine: "Catastrophe is not included in our baseline scenario". The NBU expects that even despite delays in EU credit, Ukraine will receive sufficient external support to cover the budget deficit without resorting to printing money.
The basis for optimism is simple: partners cannot afford to stop. Lepushynskyi directly stated that Ukraine is needed by the West, and therefore financing will continue. This is not complacency — it is an argument about mutual dependence.
Where the crack appears between "baseline scenario" and reality
However, there is a detail that makes this optimism conditional. Verkhovna Rada Tax Committee Chairman Danylo Hetmantsev acknowledged in an interview with LIGA.net that there will be no financial catastrophe in April — but did not rule it out later this year. In a separate interview with Focus, he cited specific figures:
"If we look at the Ukraine Facility, then by the end of 2025 we failed to meet 14 indicators, as a result of which we already lost 3.9 billion euros".
Danylo Hetmantsev, Chairman of the VRU Committee on Finance
According to Obozrevatel, the vast majority of the shortfall falls in the fourth quarter of 2025 — 10 of 14 unmet indicators totaling 2.5 billion euros. Some of them may still be deferred, but after 12 months of default, funds are lost permanently.
Why this is not just a technical glitch
Failure to meet indicators is not an abstraction. Among the reasons are the actions of the Financial Monitoring Service, which systematically ignored requests from anti-corruption bodies and effectively failed one of the program's milestones. That is, the loss of funding is related not only to external geopolitics — Hungary, the US position, or delays in tranches — but also to internal institutional failures.
- The 2025 budget provides for external borrowing at the level of over 38 billion dollars — almost the entire deficit is covered externally.
- Ukraine Facility is one of the key channels: losing even part of the volume affects the entire budget planning.
- At the same time, at risk is the new IMF credit program worth 8 billion dollars, which is tied to compliance with the same reform conditions.
The NBU has grounds to speak of stability: international reserves remain at an acceptable level, the hryvnia is holding. But Lepushynskyi's "baseline scenario" assumes that partners will continue financing — while Ukraine has already shown that it implements conditions inconsistently.
If by the end of the first quarter the Verkhovna Rada does not pass legislation needed for the next IMF tranche, and EU credit is not unblocked — will the NBU's "baseline scenario" remain relevant until summer?
