What happened
On 20 February 2026 the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, the Donald Trump administration replaced them with a single additional customs charge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Initially the rate was 10%, and the next day it was raised to 15%. The new regime took effect on 24 February 2026 and will remain in force for 150 days unless Congress extends it.
"Analysis by Global Trade Alert shows: the shift to a uniform 15% charge shifts trade gains toward countries that previously had advantages or strong exports to the U.S."
— Global Trade Alert, analytical report
Who benefits — key figures
According to Global Trade Alert, the biggest winner is Brazil — its average tariff will fall by 13.6 percentage points. Next are China (–7.1 percentage points) and India (–5.6 percentage points). Producers from Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia also benefit — those who the Trump administration had earlier criticized for trade surpluses with the U.S.
Who loses — allies under pressure
Traditional U.S. partners will feel the biggest hit. For the United Kingdom the average tariff will rise by 2.1 percentage points, for Italy by 1.7 percentage points, and for Singapore by 1.1 percentage points. For the EU, which agreed on the 15% rate, the overall increase will be about 0.8 percentage points. Under the new 15% rate, the U.S. weighted average tariff will be 13.2% — compared with 15.3% before the court decision and 8.3% in the period after the IEEPA tariffs were struck down.
What this means for Ukraine
Most Ukrainian goods previously faced a 10% rate; they now face a 15% rate — the Global Trade Alert study does not provide an average tariff specifically for Ukraine, but the fact of a rate increase for a number of products is clear. This has direct economic and strategic significance: higher tariffs reduce the competitiveness of Ukrainian exports in the U.S., weakening opportunities to expand markets during the war.
Why this matters: the change in customs logic is not just tariff arithmetic. A uniform 15% charge erases compensatory effects that previously benefited countries with stricter sectoral restrictions, and it encourages a reallocation of global supply chains toward those who already have competitive advantages in the American market.
"The shift to a single additional charge changes the rules of the game: some countries receive tariff 'discounts', others face new barriers to their exports. For states that depend on export markets, this is a matter of economic security."
— analysts at Global Trade Alert and observers of international trade
Consequences and what Ukraine should do
Short term: higher tariffs on some Ukrainian goods mean pressure on exporters' revenues and potential loss of market shares in the U.S. Medium and long term: there is a risk of further reorientation of supply chains toward countries favored by the 15% regime — this intensifies competition in segments where we are expanding exports during the war.
Recommended steps: step up diplomacy to seek exemptions and temporary preferences, pursue compensation or protection mechanisms for critical sectors, accelerate market diversification and invest in improving export quality and logistics.
Conclusion
This tariff change is not just another item on a U.S. trade bulletin. It alters the balance of power in world trade and creates both opportunities and risks for Ukraine. While international discussions continue, our key task is to turn the new rules into a political and economic advantage, not another barrier to exports.
