Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Yerevan on July 2 — and brought concrete figures. Up to 80% of Armenian exports to the EU will come in duty-free: fresh fruits and vegetables, beverages, spirits. Separately — 18 million euros to complete a support package of 52 million euros and a team of EU experts to develop export infrastructure.
What stands behind these figures
The context is nearly half a year of consistent pressure. From late May 2026, Russia gradually banned the import of Armenian tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, greens, strawberries, then — cherries, apricots, plums, peaches, and "Jermuk" grape mineral water. The official explanation — phytosanitary violations. Analysts consider the coincidence with the date of Armenian parliamentary elections on June 7 to be no accident.
Von der Leyen called Moscow's actions directly: «economic coercion». "When pressure increases on our partners, the EU strengthens its support. You can count on us," she said at a joint press conference with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
«This means that 80% of Armenian trade with us will now be exempted from tariffs. Because of this, we can reorient products that have so far been largely dependent on the Russian market to the EU single market with 450 million consumers.»
Ursula von der Leyen, statement following a meeting with Pashinyan, July 2, 2026
What remained off-screen
The measure has two obvious weak points — and they are already being openly discussed.
First — cognac. Armenian brandy is one of the country's key export goods, but as FT reports citing sources in the European Commission, it "raised questions" when preparing the measures: France protects the name "cognac" as a geographical indication, and promoting an Armenian analogue in the EU is competitively difficult. Under the 2017 CEPA agreement, Armenian producers must abandon the "cognac" brand by 2043.
Second — logistics. Armenia is a landlocked country. The only routes to the EU are through Turkey or Georgia. Delivery of perishable goods through these corridors remains a significant limitation that tariff benefits do not eliminate.
The measures are designed for two years and require approval from a majority of EU member states and the European Parliament — meaning they have not yet come into force.
«A stopgap», not a replacement
Richard Giragosyan, director of the Regional Center for Studies and Analysis in Yerevan, makes no secret of his skepticism in a comment to FT: the proposed measures will be only "temporary or limited." "This is not enough to compensate for Russia's dominance — it's more of a stopgap," the publication quotes him as saying.
Armenian economist Tigran Manasaryan goes further. According to him, over the past decade, Armenia's trade turnover with EAEU countries has grown twelve-fold — a rate he called "extraordinary by international standards." Reorientation over two years requires not only benefits, but systemic changes in production and standards.
Competition remains a separate problem. "It is hard to imagine significant demand for Armenian brands in countries where domestic producers dominate the market," Manasaryan noted, citing France as an example.
The big bill
According to analysis by The Hague Research Institute, Armenia's trade turnover with Russia and the EAEU by 2024 exceeded $10 billion. After the start of rapprochement with the EU, bilateral trade with Russia in 2025 fell by almost 50% — to $6.7 billion, although this is partly explained by the closure of re-export schemes for gold and diamonds through the UAE.
Pashinyan managed to receive a symbolically important signal from the EU on the eve of the formation of a new government. But the question remains open: if during two acts of the duty-free regime, Armenian exports to the EU do not grow at least twofold — will the European Commission be ready to continue the measures, or will pragmatism overcome solidarity?
