At the Summit of World Ukrainians, the authorized representative of the Verkhovna Rada for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets announced a figure that Ukrainians have long known but rarely voice together: since the start of Russian aggression in 2014, approximately 8.5 million citizens have left the country. More than 5.7 million of them departed since February 2022, according to UNHCR data.
An important nuance that Lubinets highlighted separately: the real figure could be higher. According to him, official Foreign Ministry statistics show 8.5 million, while other estimates suggest up to 11 million. The difference between these numbers is not a statistical error but a direct problem: it affects social protection, consular assistance, and the preparation of reintegration programs.
Two conditions without which — nothing
«We all sincerely want our people to return, but calls alone are not enough. Two conditions are needed: reliable international security guarantees and a separate international housing initiative, without which mass return will not happen».
Dmytro Lubinets, Summit of World Ukrainians
The ombudsman separately emphasized the need to extend temporary protection status for Ukrainians abroad until the end of hostilities. Currently, more than 4.3 million Ukrainians use this status in the EU — the most in Germany, Poland, and Czechia.
What sociology says: 74% → 43%
Data from the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) record alarming dynamics. According to the Info Sapiens poll commissioned by CES, in December 2022, 74% of Ukrainians abroad planned to return. By January 2024 — 52%. By November–December 2024, this share had fallen to 43%. Only 20% of respondents are completely confident they will return.
CES analysts identify four clusters among refugees — from those already building a «new life trajectory» abroad to those maintaining clear plans to return. Under various scenarios, 2 to 3 million Ukrainians will not return home at all.
The economic price
According to CES calculations, without effective government return policy, Ukraine could lose up to $113 billion in GDP over 10 years (at 2021 prices). For the economy to grow at 7% annually until 2032, the country needs to attract 3.1 to 4.5 million people to the labor market. Meanwhile, a survey by the European Business Association in 2024 showed: 71% of Ukrainian companies have already faced significant labor shortages.
The paradox of the situation is that those same Ukrainians who do not return become an economic asset for host countries. Research for UNHCR conducted in summer 2025 found: Ukrainian refugees in Poland generate approximately 2.7% of Polish GDP.
- 8.5 million — official Foreign Ministry figure (UNHCR data from 2022: 5.7 million)
- 43% — share of those planning to return (December 2024, CES/Info Sapiens)
- $113 billion — potential GDP losses over 10 years without return policy
- 4.3 million — Ukrainians with active temporary protection status in the EU
Lubinets correctly set priorities: security and housing are necessary conditions. But sociology records another variable that is harder to measure and even harder to change: time. If the share of those willing to return falls by approximately 10 percentage points annually — to what level will it drop by the time security guarantees and housing programs finally appear?
