On January 6, the largest composition meeting of the "coalition of the willing" was held at the Élysée Palace: leaders of European countries, Canada, representatives of the USA, EU, and NATO. The result — the Paris Declaration on "reliable security guarantees for a strong and lasting peace." However, between the declaration and the commitments that will actually come into force, there remains one condition: Russia must agree to a ceasefire.
What was signed — and when it will take effect
The Declaration fixes three key blocks. First, participation in a monitoring mechanism led by the United States: a continuous system for observing the ceasefire, which will include both coalition members and a joint commission to review violations. Second, multinational forces for Ukraine — a European contingent with the participation of non-European coalition members and with US support for army restoration and deterrence. Third, "legally and politically binding guarantees" in case of a new Russian attack.
"Any settlement must be backed by reliable security guarantees for Ukraine"
— Paris Declaration of the Coalition, January 6, 2026
However, the declaration itself contains a caveat: all mechanisms "must be strictly implemented after a credible cessation of hostilities." In other words, the Paris Declaration is an agreement between allies about what they will do for each other. Russia is not party to this document.
Context: where negotiations stand
At the meeting in Mar-a-Lago on December 28, Trump and Zelensky discussed a 20-point plan, agreed upon after weeks of negotiations in Florida. According to Zelensky, the document is "ready approximately 90%" — but two points (the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the territorial question) remain open. The USA agreed to offer Ukraine security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5 for 15 years — in exchange for Kyiv's renunciation of a formal application for Alliance membership.
Moscow's reaction remains skeptical. At a press conference on December 19, Putin stated that Russia would "liberate the Donbas and Novorossiya by military or other means." The Kremlin also categorically rejects any presence of NATO or coalition troops on Ukrainian territory to monitor the ceasefire.
Europe's role: real or decorative?
Berlin and Paris are actively shaping the EU's position in these negotiations. Merz organized coordination meetings of European leaders before contacts with Trump, and Macron called the Paris Declaration "a significant step." According to Starmer, after a ceasefire, Great Britain and France will establish "military hubs" throughout Ukraine to store weapons and train troops.
But the American representative Jared Kushner said clearly at the final press conference: "This does not mean that we will achieve peace. But without the progress achieved today, peace would be impossible." In other words, the Paris meeting is not a period, but a semicolon.
- The Paris Declaration was signed by all coalition members — but "binding commitments" still need to be "finalized," as directly stated in the document text
- The size of the proposed forces has not been announced publicly
- Russia occupies approximately 20% of Ukraine and shows no readiness for a ceasefire without "full resolution"
- The territorial question — where the demarcation line will be — remains open
Zelensky stated that he wants to put the 20-point plan to a referendum in Ukraine. However, to hold a vote, a ceasefire lasting at least 60 days is needed — which Moscow has not yet agreed to.
If Russia rejects the plan by the end of January, the coalition will face a concrete choice: intensify pressure through new sanctions (the EU is already preparing another package) or reconsider its own "commitments," which so far are tied to a condition controlled by the Kremlin.
