Ten Iranian military facilities in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby — that is the result of American strikes in the night of June 26-27. The reason: Iranian forces hit the Panamanian tanker M/T Kiku with a strike drone around 4:30 a.m. on Saturday. The vessel was carrying over two million barrels of crude oil. This is not the first attack in a week — and not the first response from CENTCOM.
What was signed — and what was violated
On June 17, 2026, Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum remotely, which was to end the war between both countries and Israel. After that, Vice President JD Vance traveled to Switzerland for negotiations with Iranian counterparts regarding the implementation of the agreement. The memorandum did not provide for an external verification mechanism: each side interprets its violations in its own way.
Vance wrote on X on Friday: "Iran signed a ceasefire agreement. We are adhering to it," adding that "violence will be met with violence." On June 27, Iran accused the US of violating the peace agreement following American strikes on Iranian military facilities on June 26.
Strikes and counterstrikes
CENTCOM stated that American aviation struck Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense positions, drone storage facilities, and mining equipment. "Commercial vessels continue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz," CENTCOM emphasized.
Iran responded symmetrically. The IRGC confirmed that its naval and aerospace forces carried out joint missile and drone strikes against American military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Bahrain also reported that it was targeted by an Iranian drone attack, which provoked swift condemnation from allies.
A threat that cannot be ignored
"There may come a moment when we can no longer be reasonable and will be forced to finish militarily the work that we have very successfully begun. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to exist"
— Donald Trump, Truth Social, June 27
Trump published the post after American aviation struck Iranian missile and drone storage facilities, as well as coastal radar positions, accusing Tehran of another violation of the ceasefire agreement. The phrasing "finish the work" echoes Trump's previous statements that Iran's nuclear program has been "destroyed" — a claim that American intelligence has not publicly confirmed.
Why Hormuz is not just an Iranian problem
Approximately 20% of global oil trade passes through the strait. While hostilities continue, the fragile ceasefire agreement in the Middle East continues to crumble. Tanker shipping, which began recovering after the memorandum, is again under threat — insurance premiums for passage through the strait respond faster than diplomats.
The escalation logic is now as follows: each strike on a tanker gives CENTCOM grounds for new strikes, each American strike gives the IRGC grounds to attack bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. A memorandum without a verification mechanism does not stop this cycle.
If Tehran does not stop attacks on commercial vessels before the end of the negotiating window that Switzerland is trying to keep open, the question is no longer whether the memorandum will survive — but whether Trump will retain the domestic political incentive to save it.
