On the night of May 13, weather balloons launched from Belarusian territory entered Lithuanian airspace and forced air traffic control services to temporarily close Vilnius airport. On May 14, Lithuania's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Belarus's chargé d'affaires and handed him a protest note. This is neither the first nor, apparently, the last such incident.
Not an Anomaly, but a Pattern
The May 13 incident is part of a persistent trend. According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, from June to December 2025 alone, 315 unregistered balloons crossed the Lithuanian border, with a peak in October—71 incursions in a single month. Vilnius airport was closed on average twice a week.
Formally, the balloons are used to smuggle cigarettes—Belarusian-made and counterfeit ones. But Lithuania has long stopped treating this as a routine border violation.
"Vilnius considers these repeated incidents a hybrid attack against Lithuania, for which Belarus bears responsibility."
From the note of Lithuania's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, handed to the Belarusian diplomat on May 14, 2026
What Lithuania Has Already Tried
- Border closure. On October 29, 2025, Lithuania closed all border crossings with Belarus. Three weeks later, it reopened them—as a "gesture of goodwill." The balloons did not stop.
- State of emergency. In December 2025, the Lithuanian government declared a state of emergency, citing threats to national security and civil aviation.
- Appeal to the EU. Lithuania's Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budris appealed to Brussels for new sanctions against Minsk—including a complete freeze of transactions for 10 Belarusian banks and a ban on rapeseed oil imports.
Minsk and the Rhetoric of Parallel Reality
At a Security Council meeting in December 2025, Lukashenko called the closure of the Lithuanian border a "crazy fraud" and proposed that Vilnius conduct bilateral negotiations without intermediaries. Minsk officially denies involvement in the balloon launches.
Meanwhile, according to RFE/RL, around a thousand Lithuanian trucks remain blocked on the Belarusian side of the border—their owners are forced to pay 120 euros per day for parking, and non-payment threatens confiscation.
Diplomacy Without Leverage
The April protest note is not the first: Lithuania took a similar step on December 3, 2025. Then, the airspace over Vilnius was restricted for over seven hours, affecting 27 flights and over three thousand passengers.
The problem is not a lack of legal grounds—airspace violations have been documented and recorded. The problem is that Belarus does not respond to notes, and the EU has still not imposed new sanctions despite pressure from Vilnius.
If Brussels does not introduce sectoral sanctions against Minsk by the end of summer—will Lithuania change tactics from diplomatic notes to something with real costs for the Belarusian side?
