On July 23, during a joint press conference with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin, President Zelensky outlined how he sees the nearest diplomatic scenario. A phone call with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff on the eve gave him some American ideas — without details, "so as not to spoil the process."
The Logic of Two Steps
The scheme Zelensky described is linear: Americans first transmit proposals to the Russians, then — a trilateral meeting. The timeline — by autumn.
"If it were up to us, it would have already happened in July. But not everything depends on us."
Volodymyr Zelensky, press conference in Kyiv, July 23
The key point that remains in the shadows in most reports: no documented mechanism of control or verification for this process has been publicly named. There are proposals, there are timelines, but there are no commitments with specific consequences for non-compliance.
What Was Happening in Parallel
While Zelensky was speaking in Kyiv, in Manila on the sidelines of the ASEAN forum, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met. According to Rubio, the parties discussed the "need to end the war" — but he provided no details. The Russian Foreign Ministry, for its part, reported on an "exchange of views," without mentioning any results.
Meanwhile, Moscow's position remains unchanged: as ZN.ua reports citing Lavrov's statements, Russia declares readiness for negotiations only on the condition of de facto surrender of Donbas — that is, recognition by Kyiv of the occupied but not yet captured territories of Donetsk region. On July 22, Bloomberg, citing sources close to the Kremlin, reported that Putin does not plan any territorial concessions and is counting on capturing Donbas by the end of the year.
Rubio acknowledged that negotiations "have not made significant progress in recent months" and suggested that new ideas would be needed, since Kyiv rejected previous proposals.
Where the Tension Point Is
Zelensky speaks of a trilateral meeting as a process in which Ukraine is an active participant. But the actual sequence looks different: first the U.S. and Russia, and only then — Kyiv. That is, Ukraine enters the room after Americans have already spoken with Moscow one-on-one.
- Format: not publicly defined — neither the level of delegations nor the agenda
- Enforcement mechanism: absent from public access
- Russia's position: "readiness" without territorial concessions
- U.S. position: search for "new ideas," acknowledgment of impasse in previous ones
Before meeting with Lavrov, Rubio publicly ignored journalists' questions about when Russia would end the war. This is not a protocol pause — this is the absence of an answer to the central question of the negotiation process.
"We remain open and ready to play a constructive role in ending this war if such an opportunity arises."
Marco Rubio, before meeting with Lavrov in Manila
The Manila meeting concluded without announced results. They agreed to "continue contacts."
If Americans, after talks with Moscow, return to Kyiv with a proposal that again concerns Donbas — will Zelensky have room to maneuver within the country, or will refusal again close the "window until autumn"?
