At the 2026 World Championship, for the first time in tournament history, not only group winners and runners-up advance to the Round of 16, but also the eight best third-place teams among the twelve groups. This very format transformed the formally inconsequential 0:0 draw between Australia and Paraguay into a match with very real consequences for both teams.
What happened in Group D
The USA won the group with six points — two dominant matches at the start (4:1 over Paraguay and 2:0 over Australia) allowed Mauricio Pochettino to field a reserve squad in the final round against Turkey. The result was a 3:2 defeat, but with no consequences for tournament standing. According to ESPN, the Americans will play in the playoff round against Bosnia and Herzegovina in San Francisco.
Australia completed the group stage in second place with four points. According to Fox Sports, the "socceroos'" opponent in the Round of 16 will be the second-place team from Group G, currently led by Egypt at the time matches concluded.
Turkey, despite beating the USA, finished fourth and left the tournament. Victory over the hosts in the final round proved to be a gesture of dignity rather than a survival tool.
Paraguay: four points on the edge
The most interesting situation involves Paraguay. The team finished third with four points and a zero goal difference, and its fate depends on results from other groups. As Yahoo Sports explains, five teams potentially can overtake Paraguay in the third-place standings — Croatia, Algeria, Cape Verde, Belgium, and DR Congo. If all five accumulate more points, Paraguay will end up ninth and be eliminated.
"Paraguay earned another point and moved to fourth place [among third-place teams], but could still drop to ninth"
Yahoo Sports, group stage summary
Selection criteria among third-place teams, according to FIFA rules: points → goal difference → goals scored → disciplinary record → FIFA ranking. The goalless draw gave Paraguay a point but left it with zero goal difference — the weakest aspect among these five criteria if competitors equalize on points.
Why the draw looked the way it did
The Australia-Paraguay match had simple logic: Australia had enough with a draw, Paraguay did too, because a loss guaranteed elimination. Neither side had incentive to take risks. Zero goals in 90 minutes — not a failure but a rational response to tournament mathematics. Another matter is that this mathematics became possible thanks to the 2026 World Cup format expanded to 48 teams, where third place no longer means "goodbye."
If at least one of the five teams competing against Paraguay fails to earn enough points in their remaining matches — the South American squad will continue fighting in the tournament for the first time since 2010. But if all five teams win — the point from the draw against Australia will prove to be the only one missing.
