When $147 per barrel appears on trading terminal screens—and June futures cost twenty dollars less—this is not speculative rally. This means refineries are looking for oil right now and willing to overpay for immediate delivery.
Two markets in one price
Forties Blend from the North Sea is a benchmark for the physical market—oil that can be pumped into refineries this week. On Thursday, April 9, its spot price approached $147 per barrel, exceeding the peaks before the 2008 financial crisis. In parallel, S&P Global Platts recorded dated Brent at $144.42—already on April 7, this became a new absolute record, surpassing the previous high of $144.22.
The $20 per barrel difference between the physical market and futures is not a trading anomaly, but a diagnosis. As Reuters explains, citing veteran oil trader Adi Imsirovic:
"When there is a real physical deficit, people think not about delivery in July, but about oil right now."
Adi Imsirovic, oil trader
Why now
The reason is a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Since the end of February 2026, tanker traffic through the strait, which accounts for approximately 25% of global maritime oil trade, has been effectively blocked. For Europe, this means the loss of significant volumes of Middle Eastern crude at a time when gas storage reserves were already at minimums after a harsh winter.
Morgan Stanley analysts describe the situation this way: the market is "clearing" supplies of physical barrels suitable for processing—and the tension manifests first in the nearest deliveries. According to LSEG data, jet fuel prices in Europe have closely approached March records at $226.40 per barrel. Diesel is still lagging behind 2022 peaks, but holding at $203.59.
What this changes practically
- For refineries: a choice between expensive immediate delivery or shutting down capacity—both options are passed on to retail prices.
- For consumers: jet fuel hits records before diesel does—meaning air tickets become more expensive first, fuel at gas stations follows with a week's delay.
- For the market overall: Wall Street traders and analysts are already considering a $200 per barrel scenario if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a second consecutive month.
Notably, the ceasefire in the Middle East announced the day before did not bring down spot prices—the physical market responds not to diplomatic signals, but to real tankers in ports.
If the Strait of Hormuz does not restore full traffic by the end of April, will Europe have enough reserves from the North Sea and the US to avoid fuel rationing—or will the crisis this time go beyond a price shock?
