When on February 28, 2026, the USA and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, and Tehran in response blocked the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass daily — the global energy market faced the greatest disruption in its history. This is not a metaphor from the IEA, it is the agency's official assessment.
What Collapsed and Why It Won't Stop Quickly
In March, global oil production fell by 10.1 million barrels per day — down to 97 million. Persian Gulf countries reduced production by at least 10 million barrels per day: there is nowhere to store the oil, and it is impossible to export it. Oil refineries in the region are shutting down — not due to lack of raw materials, but because storage facilities are overflowing and tanker traffic through the strait has virtually halted.
"The restoration of flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable for reducing pressure on energy supplies, prices, and the global economy."
— IEA, April Oil Market Report, 2026
Brent exceeded $120 per barrel in March and was trading around $130 in early April — $60 above pre-war levels. Physical oil prices on the spot market approached $150, as Asian refiners frantically searched for alternative supplies.
Diesel and Fertilizers: The Less Obvious Impact
The Strait of Hormuz carries more than just oil. About 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade passes through it, including nearly all Qatari LNG. Additionally, about 30% of global carbamide exports and up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers flow through the strait. According to warnings from the British Food Policy Institute, disruptions in fertilizer supply will impact grain and corn prices — with this effect manifesting after a delay of several months.
Diesel fuel and jet fuel are the most vulnerable: the IEA directly states that there are virtually no alternative capacities to increase their production. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Middle East. Myanmar has restricted private car usage to every other day. Nepal is providing consumers with only half of their ordered gas cylinder volumes.
Four Days Against Uncertainty
On March 11, 32 IEA member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves onto the market. It sounds massive — but this is approximately four days of global oil consumption. The IEA frankly calls this measure a "temporary buffer, not a solution."
The situation is complicated by the fact that both alternative routes — Saudi Arabia's Petroline (up to 5 million b/d) and the UAE's ADCOP pipeline (up to 1.8 million b/d) — can together handle a maximum of 5.5 million b/d. This is less than one-third of pre-war traffic through the strait. Moreover, as the IEA notes, these routes "have never undergone a real stress test" at maximum capacity.
On April 8, the USA and Iran announced a week-long ceasefire, but tanker movement through the strait remains far from pre-war levels. On April 13, Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.
The IEA's April report is based on the assumption that supplies will partially recover by mid-2026 — and the agency itself acknowledges that this scenario "may prove to be too optimistic." Under an alternative scenario, the deficit in 2026 could reach 1.78 million barrels per day — instead of the previously predicted surplus.
If tanker traffic through Hormuz does not resume to at least 50% of pre-war levels by the end of May, the IEA's strategic reserves will be depleted before the market finds systemic alternatives, and the diesel crisis in Asia will transform into a food crisis.
