As of June 1, 2025, Ukraine's international reserves totaled $45.7 billion — $2.5 billion less than a month earlier. The regulator noted that this trend was driven by the National Bank's currency interventions and the country's debt payments in foreign currency. This indicator covers 4.7 months of future imports — formally above the IMF's critical minimum of 3 months, but the trend is concerning.
What Was Spent and What Was Received
The mechanics of the reduction are simple: expenses exceeded revenues. In May, the regulator's net foreign currency sales decreased by 12.4% compared to April, but remained significant — in total, the National Bank sold $3.13 billion on the market.
Debt obligations consumed even more. In May, $126.2 million was paid for servicing and repaying state debt in foreign currency, and $274.9 million was paid to the International Monetary Fund.
Several sources of inflows provided a counterbalance. During May, $599.2 million flowed into the government's foreign currency accounts at the National Bank: of this amount, $498.8 million came through World Bank accounts, and the state attracted another $100.4 million through the placement of foreign currency government bonds. Asset revaluation partially compensated for the reduction: through the revaluation of financial instruments and the impact of other factors, international reserves increased by $441.9 million.
April Record — and Sharp Reversal
In April, reserves reached their maximum since the beginning of the war — they grew by $4.31 billion to $46.68 billion, thanks to significant inflows from partners and minimal interventions.
Forbes Ukraine
May's reduction of 5.2% — the sharpest monthly decline of 2025 — wiped out most of April's gains in less than 30 days. In 2024, the NBU directed $34.8 billion to support the hryvnia through currency interventions — and this logic hasn't changed: the exchange rate needs to be maintained, imports are critical, and seasonal demand for foreign currency in May traditionally increases.
Structural Problem
Reserves depend not on domestic production, but on the rhythm of external tranches. In 2024, Ukraine received $42 billion in financial assistance from international partners, including $17 billion from the EU, $8 billion from the USA, $5.3 billion from the IMF, and $4.3 billion from Japan. Compared to this, $599 million from partners in May 2025 — is a modest result.
- $3.13 billion — foreign currency sold on the market to stabilize the hryvnia
- $401.1 million — paid on external debt and to the IMF
- $599.2 million — received from partners and government bonds
- $441.9 million — increase from asset revaluation
If a large tranche from the EU or IMF does not arrive next month — and the June debt payment schedule remains in effect — reserves could fall below $44 billion for the first time since the beginning of 2025.
