On May 26, a day before the IMF mission's arrival in Kyiv, the Verkhovna Rada failed a vote on bill No. 12360 — deputies were unable to even send it for a second reading. This law — introducing a 20% VAT on international parcels worth up to 150 euros — was what the IMF demanded as one of the key conditions of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program.
Despite this, Bloomberg reported citing its sources that the IMF and Ukraine reached a staff-level agreement, paving the way for a tranche of $686 million. An official announcement is expected on June 12, but the tranche will only take effect after approval by the IMF Board of Directors.
Why the Rada didn't vote — and why the IMF didn't block the tranche
The bill proved politically toxic: 74.5 million parcels worth up to 150 euros pass through the mail annually — mostly orders from AliExpress, Temu, and other marketplaces. Under the new rules, VAT would be administered by the marketplaces or postal operators themselves, not buyers — but deputies still did not dare support the document.
According to economist Maksym Samoilyuk from the Center for Economic Strategy, the failure occurred at the worst possible moment:
"It was important to manage it before the IMF experts arrived to show them progress. But instead, we showed failure."
Maksym Samoilyuk, economist at CES
Initially, the IMF's position was strict and provided no postponements. However, the Ukrainian side managed to convince the mission that parliament needed additional time to work with deputies due to lack of consensus. The Fund agreed — but according to sources familiar with the negotiations, made it clearly understood that this postponement is the last one.
What this agreement means in practice
The new four-year EFF program worth $8.1 billion was approved at the end of February, with the first tranche ($1.5 billion) received by Ukraine in March. The second tranche of $686 million — the current one — is part of the four planned payments scheduled for 2026 totaling $3.83 billion.
- The deadline for passing the "parcel law" has been moved to the end of July
- The next IMF program review is scheduled for the end of August — by this date the law must be enacted
- In parallel, the Rada must consider bill No. 15111-d on taxing income from digital platforms
Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko warned publicly before the negotiations: "There is a great risk that this bill will not be passed. There are no arguments why we cannot do what we should have done back in 2022."
The stakes extend beyond the tranche itself: without meeting IMF conditions, Ukraine risks freezing of 8.35 billion euros in EU budget support tied to the same reform program.
If by the end of July the Rada again fails to find a majority for the "parcel law" — is the IMF ready to halt the $8.1 billion program amid active warfare, or does this turn conditionality into a ritual without consequences?
