A bank founded in 1472 — before Columbus sailed to America — has survived plague, Napoleonic wars, and a state bailout in 2017 over its 554-year history. Now Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) finds itself at the center of the largest banking deal in Italian history.
An unexpected move on Monday morning
Intesa Sanpaolo — Italy's largest bank — made an unsolicited offer on June 8, 2026 to acquire MPS for €30.6 billion in cash and shares. The offer includes a 12.5% premium to MPS's market value on Friday (€27.4 billion). If completed by December 2026, it would create the second-largest banking group in the eurozone by capitalization — €126 billion, second only to Spain's Banco Santander.
But the real intrigue is not about the amount. The day before, on Sunday, Banco BPM — Italy's fourth-largest bank with a market value of around €20 billion — proposed a "merger of equals" with MPS and positioned it as a way to create a third major player against the Intesa–UniCredit duopoly. This is partly why French Crédit Agricole, with a 20.1% stake, stands behind BPM. Intesa simply crossed out these plans, leaving no time for negotiations.
"The chances of success for a suitor who thinks he can win over his beloved simply by sending her a letter are small"
Carlo Cimbri, head of Unipol — about BPM's offer at a press conference in Milan
What's really at stake: Generali
Financial metrics are only part of the picture. The real prize is a 13% stake in insurance giant Generali, which MPS acquired after absorbing Mediobanca in late 2025. Intesa explicitly stated that it will retain both Mediobanca and this stake. UniCredit, meanwhile, spent last year building up its own position in Generali — and now risks losing in the game for influence over Italy's largest insurance company.
Notably, MPS arrived at its current position through a strange reverse path: in 2017, the state saved it from bankruptcy; in 2023–2024, it gradually exited its capital — and this very exit turned the bank into a target. The Meloni government sold its final stake in November 2024, reducing its share from 26.7% to 11.7%.
Deal structure: who gets what
- Intesa Sanpaolo retains Mediobanca, its brand, its stake in Generali, and 625 MPS branches.
- Unipol — Intesa's insurance partner in this scheme — plans to merge the remaining MPS branches (over 2,600) with BPER bank.
- Banco BPM is effectively sidelined from the deal.
According to Intesa's forecasts, the new group's net profit by 2029 will exceed €16 billion compared to €11.5 billion under the standalone business plan. However, 80% of the projected profit of the merged MPS–Mediobanca group will remain within Intesa's perimeter.
A CEO rescued by shareholders twice
Behind the scenes — a separate drama. MPS CEO Luigi Lovaglio launched an unexpected attack on the larger Mediobanca bank in early 2025. Soon he lost the support of the board of directors due to disagreements over strategy and was removed. But in April 2026, shareholders voted for his return. Literally a month later, his bank became the subject of two competing offers simultaneously.
If EU regulators approve the deal by December 2026 — the very deadline Intesa mentions — the bank that survived the Renaissance, the Reformation, and the 2008 financial crisis will become part of a corporate structure that has existed for less than three decades. The question is not only whether MPS's board will agree: will Rome block the deal if it decides that control over Generali is passing into the wrong hands?
