May's reduction in Ukraine's international reserves by 5.2% — to $45.7 billion — looks less alarming than the headlines suggest. But the figures tell a more concrete story: the NBU sold $3.13 billion on the interbank market to prevent the exchange rate from spiking sharply, while external aid covered only part of the expenses.
Where the money went
The regulator recorded two main outflows. First — foreign currency interventions to stabilize the hryvnia exchange rate, which weakened during May from 43.96 to 44.26 UAH/USD. Second — debt payments: $126.2 million to service state debt in foreign currency and $274.9 million to the IMF.
On the inflow side — $599.2 million to government foreign currency accounts: $498.8 million through World Bank accounts and $100.4 million from placing foreign currency government bonds. Another $441.9 million was added by revaluation of financial instruments due to market exchange rate fluctuations. But the total inflows did not cover the outflows.
"These operations exceeded receipts from placing foreign currency bonds of internal government loans and from international partners. Despite the decrease, the volume of international reserves is sufficient to maintain currency market stability."
Press Service of the National Bank of Ukraine
Context missing from the official statement
May began with a record figure — $46.68 billion, achieved thanks to April's 10.2% jump. In other words, the regulator actually spent part of that record to prevent the exchange rate from falling sharply. According to analysts at KIT Group, demand for foreign currency in May was not panicked, but the NBU remained the main seller on the interbank market — a structural feature of the wartime economy.
Compared to May 2024, the NBU's net foreign currency interventions in May 2025 were 9% higher, or $262.2 million more — pressure on reserves is growing year-over-year. One of the structural factors is that the government converts external aid into hryvnias to finance the budget, which in itself puts pressure on the exchange rate and requires additional interventions.
What "sufficient" means
The NBU assesses the current level of reserves as providing 4.7 months of future imports — the standard international sufficiency threshold is 3 months. Formally, there is a cushion. But in June, reserves recovered only partially — to $45.07 billion, a 1.2% increase.
- NBU foreign currency sales in May: $3.13 billion
- Inflows from partners and government bonds: $599.2 million
- IMF and government debt payments: $401.1 million
- Revaluation of assets: +$441.9 million
- Import coverage: 4.7 months
If external inflows slow in the second half of the year — due to delays in approving next tranches or negotiation pauses with partners — the NBU will either have to increase interventions at the expense of reserves or allow the exchange rate to depreciate faster. Which of the two scenarios the Finance Ministry fears more will be evident from August's statistics.
