Cuban advisers withdraw from Venezuela — how U.S. pressure is shifting the balance in the Caribbean

The decision to withdraw Cuban doctors and advisers strengthens the autonomy of Delcy Rodríguez’s interim government and increases strategic pressure on Havana — what does this mean for security and energy flows in the region?

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Куба (Ілюстративне фото: Alejandro Ernesto/EPA)

What happened

According to Reuters, citing 11 unnamed sources, Cuban security advisers and medical personnel are leaving Venezuela. Interim president Delcy Rodríguez has handed security over to local special services — unlike during the Maduro and Chávez eras, when elite Cuban forces played a prominent role.

"The United States has very good relations with Venezuela's leaders, and we believe that Rodríguez's own interests align with advancing our key objectives."

— A White House representative

Why this matters

This move is not merely personnel-related: it undermines long-standing bilateral ties under which Venezuela supplied oil in exchange for the services of Cuban specialists. After the U.S. January operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, Washington stepped up pressure on Havana — including by blocking oil deliveries since mid-December.

An important nuance — the number of victims of the operation remains a matter of dispute: The New York Times reports at least 40 dead, while the Cuban government speaks of 32 military personnel. Reuters' piece also mentions that three dozen Cuban servicemen were killed during that operation.

Possible reasons

Reuters cites sources saying the departure of Cubans is happening under U.S. pressure. Other interlocutors suggest that some specialists fly to Cuba of their own accord or on orders from Havana. Thus, the precise combination of factors — political pressure, Rodríguez's decision, or directives from Havana — remains unknown for now.

Consequences for the region

If the departure of Cuban advisers becomes permanent, it will reduce Havana's influence in Venezuela and may lead to a reassessment of energy flows — primarily oil supplies, on which part of the Cuban economy depends. At the same time, it opens up more room for diplomatic maneuvering by the U.S. and its regional partners.

What’s next

The situation remains uncertain: whether these temporary changes will turn into a long-term reset in relations remains to be seen. For Ukraine, this story is important as an example of how a combination of operational actions and diplomatic pressure can quickly shift the balance of power in a region.

While announcements have yet to become lasting decisions, the key question remains open: can international partners preserve order and energy stability in a zone where the interests of major players intersect with countries' internal political aspirations?

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