A NABU detective who documents schemes in the energy sector learns that he is probably being wiretapped. Later, he himself is called a Russian businessman. This is not a plot but a chronology of events cited in the draft annual European Commission report on Ukraine. Radio Svoboda's editorial team has seen it; the final version will be published on Wednesday, October 28, as part of the EU Enlargement Package.
The document's tone is ambivalent. It calls the anti-corruption institutions effective: they work independently and deliver results. At the same time, the European Commission writes about attempts at pressure: criminal proceedings against individual NABU employees, surveillance by other law enforcement and security agencies, and media smear campaigns.
What exactly they are asked to change
- Establish legal safeguards against interference by other law enforcement bodies in NABU's exclusive jurisdiction. The draft calls this a problem that undermines the bureau's powers.
- Give NABU access to independent forensic examinations and its own wiretapping capabilities.
- Extend the bureau's jurisdiction to all positions with a high corruption risk, including the leadership of the Office of the President and heads of regional administrations.
- Allow the head of the SAP to open investigations independently and to approve investigative actions concerning members of parliament without the Prosecutor General's permission.
Separately, according to ZN.ua, the draft says that no significant steps were taken to reform the SBU during the reporting period. It also proposes extending the circle of those required to file declarations to advisers, aides of senior officials and heads of state-owned enterprises.
Where the money comes in
The draft itself contains no figures, but the link is straightforward. Most of Ukraine's external financing is built on conditions. For example, the Ukraine Facility program provides €50 billion for 2024–2027, and funds arrive in tranches after reforms are carried out. The rule of law and the fight against corruption are among them. The European Commission's report is one of the documents that partners look at when deciding whether to trust Ukrainian institutions with managing the money.
There is also an example of why this matters to ordinary people. According to NABU's estimate, a scheme in the energy sector documented by detectives, including the one against whom the SBU and the Office of the Prosecutor General later spoke out, revolved around roughly $100 million. This is the money of a state-owned company, which means tariffs and taxes. If those who expose such schemes work under wiretapping and suspicion, the risk that money will be spent for other purposes grows.
Why skeptics have grounds for caution
This is a draft, not the final text: the wording may change before October 28. Besides, the history of pressure has specific milestones. In the summer of 2025, the Verkhovna Rada passed Law No. 12414, which expanded the Prosecutor General's powers over NABU and the SAP. According to EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, the authorities backed down after the reaction of society and partners. The previous Prosecutor General, Kravchenko, announced a suspicion against NABU Director Kryvonos, but the Office of the Prosecutor General later said there was no suspicion. Such confusion in itself undermines trust: it is hard for an investor to assess risk when public statements contradict one another.
Will Ukraine enshrine guarantees of NABU's jurisdiction in law before the next report, and will they remain in force when it becomes inconvenient again? If not, partners will most likely tie future tranches and new loans to stricter conditions. That would mean longer pauses in financing and less money for the budget.
