On June 22, 2025, the United States struck three Iranian nuclear facilities — Fordо, Natanz, and Isfahan — as part of an operation called Operation Midnight Hammer. Seven B-2 Spirit bombers dropped 14 GBU-57A/B "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" bunker-busting bombs, and a submarine launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. Trump declared the facilities "destroyed" before independent assessments emerged.
What intelligence actually showed
Two days later, the picture changed. A classified document from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), published by leading American media outlets, recorded that the strikes did not destroy underground infrastructure and only delayed Iran's nuclear program by several months.
"The strikes did not completely destroy the centrifuges and highly enriched uranium at Fordо and Natanz. The impact on all three facilities was largely limited to surface structures."
CNN citing seven people briefed on the DIA assessment
Israeli assessments of the consequences of American strikes also recorded less damage at Fordо than expected. In other words, even the ally that directly lobbied for U.S. participation achieved results below projections.
Why escalating strikes won't change Iranian logic
Analysts note a structural problem: most agree that large-scale U.S. escalation — with the exception of a risky and politically untenable ground invasion — is unlikely to be more effective in forcing Iran to change course than previous phases of the 4.5-month war, during which U.S.-Israeli strikes eliminated senior commanders and significantly damaged military capabilities.
After the strikes, Iran suspended nuclear negotiations. Talks only resumed in early 2026 following mass protests. This means the strikes not only failed to accelerate diplomatic settlement — they halted it.
Context: what Israel had already done before American strikes
Israeli Air Force conducted repeated strikes on Natanz and Isfahan before the American operation. They destroyed the above-ground enrichment plant at Natanz — the largest in Iran — and damaged the underground section of the facility. By June 22, significant portions of above-ground infrastructure were already disabled.
The U.S. went to "finish off" what was already damaged — and even 14 bunker-busting bombs failed to penetrate what they were intended for: the underground halls of Fordо, built beneath 90 meters of rock.
A repeating pattern
Reuters' analysis documented a direct precedent: Trump threatened broader escalation, but little indicates that military strategy, which already failed to achieve concessions from Tehran, will succeed this time.
The Iranian side — regardless of internal pressure — does not publicly back down after strikes: it is a question of regime survival. Strikes on leadership and signals of regime change may encourage discontented Iranians, but simultaneously remove any restraint on Iranian leaders' response.
If the next DIA assessment confirms that centrifuges at Fordо remain functional, Washington will face a choice between acknowledging the strike's limitations and another escalation with no guaranteed results.
