On April 27, Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Straieven and Julia Zestkova-Grigsby released a memo with revised forecasts: Brent — $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, WTI — $83. The previous guidance was $80 and $72 respectively. This is not a technical correction — two months after the start of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have risen by almost $30.
From surplus to record deficit in a single quarter
At the beginning of 2025, the global market had a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs now forecasts a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 — a reversal unseen in modern oil market history.
The reason is physical: production in the Persian Gulf fell by 14.5 million barrels per day, or approximately 57% from pre-war levels. Analyst Daan Straieven notes that even after the strait reopens, production recovery will take months, not weeks — inventories will continue to decline at record rates regardless of when the blockade is lifted.
"Economic risks are greater than our base case oil forecast — driven by net upside risks to prices, unusually high refined product prices, and the unprecedented scale of the shock".
Daan Straieven and Julia Zestkova-Grigsby, Goldman Sachs, April 27, 2026
A double effect for Ukraine
For Ukraine, oil at $90 is not abstract macroeconomics. The effect is direct and twofold.
Russia receives a budget cushion. Russia's 2026 budget was calculated based on Urals crude at $59 per barrel. Before the Iranian conflict began, SberCIB analysts warned: the deficit could reach 7.3 trillion rubles ($95 billion). Now that scenario is off the table. According to The Moscow Times, Russia has already abandoned plans to cut budget expenditures, and possible revenues from the oil windfall could be directed to financing the war: 12.9 trillion rubles for defense are already budgeted.
Carnegie Center researcher Sergiy Vakulenko notes a paradox: although Ukrainian strikes reduced the physical volume of Russian oil exports, the price increase fully compensated for these losses. In other words, sanctions and military pressure on Russia's oil sector are currently being neutralized by market conditions.
Increased import costs. Ukraine does not produce its own oil on an industrial scale. More expensive fuel means more expensive logistics, a more expensive agricultural season, higher costs for infrastructure restoration. In conditions where every hryvnia counts, $90 per barrel is a hidden tax on the entire economy.
What the figures say about the global context
- Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for U.S. PCE inflation to 3.6% in April — gasoline has already risen 21.2% month-over-month.
- The IEA characterized the current crisis as "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market".
- Goldman Sachs raised its assessment of the probability of a U.S. recession to 30% over the next 12 months specifically due to the oil shock.
- According to estimates cited by RTÉ, referring to CREA analyst Luke Wickenden, the discount between Russian Urals and global benchmarks has effectively disappeared — Moscow is selling oil at nearly market price.
Goldman does not rule out a scenario of $100+: if the strait remains closed longer than the end of June (the bank's base case forecast), another revision of forecasts is inevitable.
The question that determines the next step
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 20% of global oil. Goldman Sachs expects normalization of exports from the Persian Gulf by the end of June. If this deadline shifts — the Brent forecast will change again, and with it the amount of revenue to the Kremlin's budget. The question is not whether expensive oil will hurt Russia — it will, but only if prices fall below $59 by the end of the budget year. Until that happens, the Hormuz shock is playing against Ukraine's interests.
