Sergiy Koretsky became prime minister — and the very next day called not to Berlin or Washington, but to Dan Katz, first deputy director-general of the IMF. The choice of interlocutor is more telling than any statement: the new government's main priority is money, and specifically $690 million that the IMF Board of Directors should approve by July 20.
What will be decided on July 20
This concerns the first review of the four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, which the IMF approved in February 2025 for a total of $8.1 billion. The first tranche of $1.5 billion was received by Ukraine in March. The second, $690 million, depends on the Board's decision. A Staff-Level Agreement has already been signed, and the July 20 meeting date is also confirmed.
However, there is a line in the IMF's official communique that usually gets lost in the headlines. As Interfax-Ukraine reports citing the Fund, all quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for end-March were met — however, one of three structural benchmarks for the first quarter was not achieved, and the other two were completed with delays. This is why an official review of the schedule became necessary.
"The outlook remains highly uncertain as the war continues to inflict significant damage on the population and economy. Despite challenging circumstances, the program remains fully financed thanks to sustained large-scale external support."
— IMF, communique following Staff-Level Agreement
Why $690 million is more than $690 million
The amount itself is not the main thing. The current EFF program is a signal beacon for all other creditors: the World Bank, the EU, governments of partner countries. They orient themselves by IMF assessments when making their own aid decisions. A stop or pause in the program — even a technical one — triggers a chain reaction throughout external budget financing.
In parallel, Koretsky and Katz, according to the prime minister, agreed to coordinate further steps for budget financing for 2027 — meaning the conversation went far beyond a single tranche. The new government is effectively immediately entering negotiations about the next budget architecture before the current year is closed.
Unsettled account
There is also a separate challenge inherited by Koretsky. According to RBC-Ukraine, one of the conditions of the IMF memorandum — which Ukraine was supposed to fulfill by the end of July — will clearly not be met on time. The details of this condition are not officially disclosed, but there is a precedent: the Fund has already turned a blind eye to structural delays to continue the program. Doing this a second time in a row is another matter.
- July 20 — IMF Board of Directors meeting on the first EFF review
- $690 million — amount of the second tranche after approval
- $2.2 billion — total disbursements under the program after this tranche
- 1 of 3 structural benchmarks for Q1 not met, two completed with delays
The July 20 tranche will apparently go through: the agreement is signed, the meeting is confirmed, there is sufficient political will on both sides. The real question is what will happen at the second review if by that time the unfulfilled memorandum condition remains unfulfilled. Will the IMF be willing to rewrite the schedule a third time, or this time will it impose stricter demands?
