Sanctions Without Automatic Trigger: What the New Bill Against Russia Can Actually Do

The U.S. Senate updated its sanctions package against Russia — tariffs were reduced from 500% to 100%, but preserved the blow to key buyers of Russian oil and gave Trump the authority to suspend the restrictions. The real question is not about the figures, but whether the president will exercise this right.

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When senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal introduced the bill S.1241 "Sanctioning Russia Act" in April 2025, it had 84 co-sponsors — a record bipartisan consensus. Despite this, Senate Majority Leader John Thune blocked a vote at the White House's request: the Trump administration was then negotiating with Putin and did not want additional pressure from Congress. After Graham's sudden death, senators returned to the text — and substantially rewrote it.

What changed in the document

The original version provided for a 500% tariff on all imports from countries that purchase Russian oil, gas, and uranium. The new version narrows the scope: 100% tariffs apply only to the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and separately to the five largest importers of natural gas. According to Reuters data, these are currently China, India, Slovakia, Hungary, and Azerbaijan. Tariffs do not add up: China, which leads in both categories, will receive a maximum of 100%, not 200%.

Countries that purchase less than 15% of Russian gas exports and demonstrably reduce these volumes are exempt from tariffs. This protects U.S. allies — France and Japan, which still have contracts with Gazprom but are gradually phasing them out.

"This gives the United States leverage, but it also gives Ukraine critical leverage — hopefully in peace negotiations"

— Senator Richard Blumenthal

Where the real stakes are

Oil and gas exports form the vast majority of the Kremlin's revenues. According to analysts, between May and December 2025, oil revenues to Russia's budget have already fallen 35% year-over-year — partly due to Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, partly due to sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil. The bill targets the same bottleneck but through third-party buyers: to force Beijing and Delhi to reconsider the price of "neutrality."

A key structural change is presidential veto authority within the law. Trump receives the power to temporarily suspend sanctions but is obligated to notify Congress in writing that this serves national security interests. Democrats insisted on narrow wording: not just "notification," but official certification with justification.

  • Financial sanctions: asset freezes and visa restrictions for Russia's top leadership, military commanders, and weapons suppliers
  • Energy: sanctions against Russian state banks and major state energy projects
  • Secondary sanctions: countries supporting the Russian military-industrial complex also face tariffs — this effectively affects Iran

Path to a vote — not guaranteed

The bill was introduced with 26 co-sponsors, but senators expect to quickly gather over 60 votes to overcome procedural blocking and a veto-proof majority. Thune again gave no clear promise to bring the document to a vote — only stating it was "a worthy way to honor Graham." Trump spoke cautiously: "There's a pretty good chance this will happen".

Blumenthal rejected Trump's offer to include sanctions against Iran and "Hezbollah" as a separate block in the bill, so as not to open the document for amendments that could drag out the process or split the coalition.

In parallel, the Senate is advancing a competing DROP Act — it focuses exclusively on oil trade with flexible exceptions for countries that isolate Russian oil revenues or pay Ukraine per-barrel fees. The two documents may either merge or compete for votes.

If Thune brings the bill to a vote before the August recess and Trump signs it without broad use of presidential waiver — China and India will face a real choice for the first time between access to the American financial system and cheap Russian oil. If the administration uses its right to suspend immediately after signing, the law will become an instrument of diplomatic bargaining rather than economic pressure.

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