The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has announced the approach of a powerful heat wave: on June 28–30, temperatures on the Right Bank of Ukraine will reach 35–38°C. The heat is not coming from the south of the country, but from afar — from the northern regions of Africa through southern and central Europe.
Due to the spread of hot air from the northern regions of Africa through southern and central Europe to the territory of Ukraine, a severe heat wave is expected on June 28–30. On June 28 — in the western, Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr regions, on June 29–30 — in the Right Bank regions of the country, daytime temperatures will be 35–38°C.
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
This wave is not an isolated anomaly. In recent days of June, most European countries are already recording record temperatures: in some regions, thermometers show 3–10° above the climatic norm. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has officially confirmed the scale of the phenomenon, and its head of climate information division, John Kennedy, noted that over 50 years Europe has warmed by approximately two degrees and has become the fastest-warming continent.
Where the real danger lies: beyond overheating
Medical professionals have long called extreme heat a "silent killer" — each year it claims on average about half a million lives worldwide. The most dangerous scenario is tropical nights, when the temperature does not drop below +20°C: the body does not have time to recover, and the risk of cardiovascular complications increases sharply.
However, in Ukraine in 2025, medical risk is compounded by infrastructure risk. Mass use of air conditioners significantly increases electricity consumption precisely when the system is already vulnerable.
Energy system: three scenarios for three days
- Optimistic: temperature does not exceed +30°C, no new attacks — the system operates without restrictions.
- Baseline (most likely): daily blackouts of 2–4 hours, mainly during the day and evening peak load.
- Pessimistic: heat, power unit repairs, and new Russian strikes on infrastructure — blackouts up to 8 hours per day. Most vulnerable — Kyiv, Odesa region, and frontline areas.
The paradox is that protection from heat — air conditioning — becomes simultaneously the cause of blackouts. The more people seek refuge from the heat, the greater the load on the grid, and the more likely the scenario where air conditioning simply has nothing to power it.
What this means practically
Three days is a short period, but it coincides with peak vulnerability: repairs of generating capacity are traditionally conducted in summer, and the deficit in the system, according to expert estimates, could reach 2 GW. If you add 38°C on the streets and millions of air conditioners to this — the safety margin of the system will be tested under real conditions, not just stress tests.
The key question for the next three days: will the energy system withstand peak load without new attacks — and if so, this will be the first real proof that the summer repairs of 2025 have yielded results. If not, blackout schedules will return sooner than expected.
