Approximately 4.4 million people in the European Union will receive another year of legal certainty: the European Commission proposed on June 26 to extend temporary protection for Ukrainians until March 4, 2028. For the vast majority, nothing changes — but the proposal contains a precedent that did not exist before.
What exactly Brussels proposes
The Temporary Protection Directive, introduced after the start of the full-scale invasion, guarantees Ukrainians the right to residence, work, healthcare, and education in EU countries without going through the standard asylum procedure. The current term was set to expire in March 2027.
"Since the war continues, our support must also continue. That is why we propose to extend temporary protection until March 4, 2028"
Magnus Brunner, EU Commissioner for Home Affairs and Migration
At the same time, Brunner explained that the proposal "takes into account Ukraine's evolving defense needs." The specific mechanism: temporary protection will not be granted to newcomers whom Ukrainian authorities did not allow to leave due to military obligations. This applies primarily to men aged 23 to 60 — those whom Ukrainian law directly prohibits from leaving the country.
Who falls under the exception — and who doesn't
A key detail that is easy to miss: the restriction is not retroactive. Those who already have temporary protection in the EU territory — regardless of gender and age — will continue to receive it without any new conditions. The new criterion applies exclusively to those who will apply after the decision comes into force.
According to Eurostat, as of April 2026, adult men make up 26.7% of all protected persons — approximately 1.17 million people. How many of them are of draft age and how many arrived illegally is not recorded in official statistics.
Different member states are already applying different approaches: Belgium, for example, requires applicants to prove that they legally crossed the Ukrainian border — which effectively filters out those who left in violation of the ban.
Precedent: protection tied to third country norms
From a legal perspective, the new proposal makes the right to protection in the EU dependent on the internal legislation of the country of origin — which is atypical for European migration law. Previously, the standard remained simple: a person flees an armed conflict — receives protection. Now a condition is added: whether your own state allowed you to leave.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty previously reported that member states planned to approve the decision in July, or at the latest in September. After approval by the Council of the EU and publication in the Official Journal of the European Union, the new rules will come into force — and they will be able to refuse military-obligated persons within weeks.
If the Council of the EU approves the proposal in its current form — without additional guarantees for those who left before the new rules came into force but have not yet secured their status — some people could find themselves in a legal gray zone: protected neither by the Directive nor by the standard asylum procedure.
