Cuba has run out of fuel oil and diesel. Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy publicly acknowledged this: some districts of Havana have no electricity for 20-22 hours a day. Since January 2026, the island has received only one major oil tanker — the Russian tanker "Anatoly Kolodkin." Its supplies have run out. Now the energy system is sustained solely by domestic production and renewable energy.
This is not a natural disaster — it is the result of a deliberate American campaign. After Maduro's consolidation of power in Venezuela, Washington blocked Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba, and Trump's executive order threatens tariffs against any third party that sells fuel to Havana. Neither Mexico nor Venezuela dare cross this line.
From Blockade to Strike: What Washington Is Considering
According to Politico, Trump and his advisors are increasingly seriously considering options ranging from targeted air strikes to full-scale ground invasion. One source familiar with internal discussions explained the logic behind the initial plan's failure:
"The initial idea about Cuba was that the regime is weak and that a combination of increased sanctions, a de facto oil blockade, and clear U.S. victories in Venezuela and Iran would scare Cubans into negotiations. Now Iran has become more complicated, and the Cubans have proven to be much stronger than expected."
Politico source familiar with internal discussions
Axios reports: Trump has already publicly suggested that an aircraft carrier returning from Iran could "stop 100 yards from shore." In parallel, the U.S. has intensified reconnaissance flights off Cuban shores, and intelligence has identified an accumulation of over 300 military drones from Russia and Iran that are theoretically capable of striking the Guantanamo base or Key West.
The Pentagon, according to USA Today, is already quietly developing operational plans — without an official order, but in a state of readiness.
Who Benefits from Escalation — and Who Is Pumping the Brakes
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban emigrants, has openly set a condition that the regime cannot meet without self-destruction: not just reforms, but "complete political and economic transformation." According to Responsible Statecraft, the Cuban side attempted to reach Trump through back channels, bypassing Rubio — and failed.
Meanwhile, Republicans in the Senate are not enthusiastic about a new adventure. The Hill reports: some Republican senators warn against military operations, insisting on economic pressure. Congress is already concerned about spending rates — the $150 billion allocated for defense under the "One Big Beautiful Bill" could be exhausted by the end of 2026.
Analyst Carlos Arcos explains to Axios why May 20 — Cuba Independence Day, marking the end of American occupation of the island — is symbolically "charged":
"There is a clear sense of anticipation and anxiety — both in Miami and on the island itself."
Carlos Arcos, analyst, in a comment to Axios
Havana Is Not Silent
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel warned in a post on X: an American strike would "provoke bloodshed with unpredictable consequences." He also called the threat itself an international crime and emphasized that Cuba "is already experiencing multidimensional aggression from the United States" and has "absolute and legitimate right to self-defense."
Cuba also condemned new American sanctions — including against 11 Cuban officials and the island's main intelligence agency — calling them part of a "fabricated case" to justify military intervention.
What's Next
The "distant strike" scenario — similar to the Iranian one, which was intended to "shock the regime and split its leadership" — remains the most likely option among those being discussed. Ground invasion is considered unlikely even among hardline supporters.
The real question is not whether Trump will strike — but whether the formula "short strike → regime change" will work on an island with 300 drones, a hardened army, and sixty years of experience resisting Washington. If not, the administration will get a third "side" front simultaneously with an unfinished Iran situation and without its own Senate's support.
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