Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" — in accordance with the ceasefire conditions with the United States. Formally, this looks like a diplomatic success. Practically — the numbers tell a different story.
What is actually happening. According to analytics company Kpler, after the ceasefire came into force, an average of nine vessels per day pass through the strait — compared to over 130 in the pre-war period. In other words, the opening is declared, not tangible.
"De facto, the ceasefire has changed absolutely nothing in the strait situation. Nothing at all"
— Lars Jensen, Vespucci Maritime (Copenhagen), per Washington Post
The reason is not a formal ban, but risk. If a vessel finds itself in the middle of the Hormuz Channel and the ceasefire collapses, the crew will end up in a "fire zone", according to analysts. Insurance companies assess this risk accordingly — insurance premiums remain astronomical.
How it came to this. The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 8, with the opening of the strait as a key condition. However, the very next day, Iran began collecting tolls from vessels exceeding one million dollars for passage and effectively controlling traffic. After failed negotiations in Islamabad, Trump announced that the US Navy would independently "clear" the strait of mines.
Before the crisis, approximately 20 million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz daily — roughly 20% of global maritime supplies. This is the largest oil shock in recent years: Brent futures peaked at $104 per barrel during the crisis, while initial ceasefire reports sent prices plummeting 13-15% within hours.
Lebanon as a detonator. The ceasefire had a structural vulnerability from the start: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Trump stated that the deal "does not include Lebanon," after which Israel launched its most powerful strikes on Lebanon since the war began. In response, Iran suspended traffic through the strait, citing ceasefire violations — and the circle closed.
Araghchi's statement legally fixes nothing: the ceasefire text contains no third party to verify vessel passage or respond to violations. This opening is "along the route agreed by the Islamic Republic of Iran Ports Organization" — meaning Iran itself determines who and how passes through.
If within two weeks the US and Iran do not agree on a verified mechanism for monitoring passage, shipping companies will not return their fleets to the strait — and the "opening" will remain a press release.
