Three more American F-35A fighter jets have arrived at Florennes Air Base — Belgium now has seven of the 15 already manufactured. The remaining eight are still in the United States, where Belgian pilots are being trained on them. This slow, phased transition from old to new directly determines when Ukraine will finally receive the promised F-16s.
The logic is simple: until enough F-35s arrive, the old F-16s cannot be retired from Belgium's air defense rotation — the country has nothing else to protect its airspace. Therefore, the transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine is not tied to political will, but rather to the production pace of Lockheed Martin's American factory and the speed of retraining Belgian pilots.
The arithmetic of waiting
Belgium ordered 34 F-35As back in 2018, and the new fleet will achieve full combat readiness only by 2030. However, by 2027, the aircraft are to perform rapid response missions — this is the moment when F-16s become technically redundant.
Hence the schedule for Ukraine: the first seven F-16s are expected in 2026, and Belgium has promised to complete the entire package of 53 aircraft by the end of 2029. This means not a one-time delivery, but a process stretched over four years, synchronized with Belgium's rearmament.
Ukrainian Air Force has already operated F-16s from other European partners and uses them for strikes on ground targets and interception of Russian missiles and drones.
Practical conclusion
For Ukrainian aviation, this means planning ahead: until 2026, the main burden will be carried by existing aircraft from the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway, while Belgium's contribution will become significant only from 2027–2028, when deliveries become regular.
The question that remains open: will Belgium's pace of replacing F-16s with F-35s meet the stated deadlines, or will delays in fifth-generation production push Ukraine's schedule back by another year or two.
