Introduction: why this matters right now
UBS, relying on estimates from its wealth management arm UBS Wealth, is advising investors to gradually shift portfolio weight away from companies that operate primarily with software toward producers of physical infrastructure — energy equipment, materials and extraction. Bloomberg reports the bank has already begun such a transformation, citing the growing risks posed by the deployment of artificial intelligence.
Why UBS is changing its recommendations
The logic is simple: AI accelerates the automation and standardization of services and software, which reduces the defensibility of traditional intellectual assets. UBS separates two groups — AI-first companies that can capture outsized profits, and the broad mass of software/service businesses that risk becoming vulnerable.
"For the past few years it looked like a tide that lifted all boats. But this year AI will increasingly determine winners and losers. The entire digital economy can be rethought because of AI, and that is a risk for broad sectors of the equity market."
— Ulrike Hoffmann‑Burchardi, global head of equities and investment director for the Americas, UBS Wealth (Bloomberg)
The market is already reacting: the tech rally has stalled since the end of October, and the IT segment of the S&P 500 has lost about 8.6% from its October 28 record. By contrast, energy and materials have risen by at least 20% as investors reallocate capital toward "real-world" assets.
As an illustration of volatility: on 23 February 2026 IBM shares plunged 13% after news about the possible use of an Anthropic tool to upgrade legacy systems — an example of how AI-related news can instantly affect the value of traditional IT assets.
What this means for investors and for Ukraine
For investors, this is a signal to reassess portfolio risks: intangible assets and long-term investments, including private equity, will require a higher risk premium in a world where AI has ceased to be only a growth driver and has become a potential destabilizer. UBS also emphasizes that AI-first companies remain a priority among software businesses that have a chance to retain value.
For Ukraine, the shift in investment preferences is a real opportunity. Growing interest in manufacturing, energy, materials and extraction could mean an inflow of capital for rebuilding infrastructure, developing the energy sector and local industry, including defense manufacturing. Analysts note that when investors search for "atoms," countries with manufacturing capacities and reconstruction needs gain a competitive advantage.
Brief outlook
The current macro backdrop — easing monetary policy and hopes for sustainable growth — may support the stock market overall. But the selection of "winners" will increasingly depend on companies' ability to integrate AI as a fundamental competitive advantage or on the presence of real tangible assets. For Ukraine this means: be ready to absorb investment into the real sector and to offer projects with clear payback plans.
Whether Ukraine will seize this window of opportunity for industrial recovery and strengthening energy independence will depend on the speed of reforms, transparent investment conditions and the ability to convert international capital interest into concrete factories, ports and energy projects.
